Airbus has published its most recent Global Services Forecast, which notes that demand for aviation services could double by 2045 to a value of more than $420 billion if current trends persist.

Airbus’s Global Services Forecast for 2026-2045 estimate that these services could grow at a 3.8% compound annual growth rate (CAGR), as the global aircraft fleet potentially increases to 45,550 by 2045.

Passenger numbers could also increase, expected to double and reach 10 billion over the same time period.

All of this growth would call for around 2.44 million more skilled workers in roles like:

• 730,000 aircraft maintenance technicians
• 660,000 pilots
• 1,050,000 cabin crew

The Global Services Forecast recently published by Airbus also outlines six key segments of service that are expected to grow. These are:

Off-Wing Maintenance

Expected growth by 2045: $217 billion, +3.7% CAGR

Airbus anticipates off-wing maintenance demand to double in value due to the aging global fleet that call for more shop visits. It’s also likely for materials and parts supply chain constraints to continue as demand for parts support and repair keep increasing.

Maintenance Operations Support

Expected growth by 2045: $104 billion, +4.3% CAGR

This is a new services cluster that covers the time and quality required for effective inventory management to keep aircraft airworthy and reliable.

On-Wing Maintenance

Expected growth by 2045: $36 billion, +2.8% CAGR

This category includes services like heavy checks and light inspections. It shows consistent growth aligned with the worldwide fleet.

Digital & Connectivity

Expected growth by 2045: $27 billion, +5.3% CAGR

Digital and connectivity solutions and support make up the fastest-growing market in aviation services. Airbus expects this segment to triple over the next two decades.

Modifications & Upgrades

Expected growth by 2045: $21 billion, +2.6% CAGR

Modifications and upgrades to older aircraft grow in demand as the global fleet continues to age and planes stay flying longer than expected. This includes cabin retrofits and integrating modern technology.

Training

Expected growth by 2045: $17 billion, +3.1% CAGR

With an already ongoing AMT shortage, new demand for more skilled workers creates an even larger workforce requirement to fill. This means aviation organizations should focus on attracting and retaining talent.

In all segments of the aviation services market, digital solutions and connectivity stand out as being widely implemented to help with:

• Improving maintenance agility
• Reducing delays and cancellations
• Enabling real-time connectivity

Airbus also notes that in the next 20 years, Asia is likely to be the fastest-growing market in the world, with the largest service markets remaining as:

• Europe & CIS
• North America
• China

Airbus SVP Customer Services Commercial Aircraft Cristina Aguilar Grieder said, “As the global fleet doubles to more than 45,550 aircraft by 2045, we need to get ready.”

She continued, “Airbus is expanding its role as an integral services partner to support our customers across the entire aircraft lifecycle.”

“By integrating predictive operations, fleet modernization and advanced digital solutions, we are helping airlines ensure fleet availability, reliability, safety and long-term operational excellence,” added Grieder.