We all know that aviation in the backbone of the nation’s transportation system, but it’s amazing how unbreakable the network is.
Since the turn of the century, we’ve seen the 9/11 terrorist attacks, two recessions, the global financial meltdown, a sizeable winnowing of commercial air carriers via consolidation, years of stopgap FAA reauthorization agreements, pilot shortages, lack of mechanics, lack of ground support crews, shortage of line techs, improperly vetted aircraft, FBO consolidation, skyrocketing educational costs, ballooning fuel costs, diesel shortages, an unprepared network for booming civilian UAS traffic, PFAS, an aging infrastructure system, global pandemic, cyberattacks and a uptick in passenger violence inside terminals and airplanes.
And all things considered? We’re not doing too bad.
While attending NBAA-BACE in October, I was amazed how upbeat the industry remains despite all the unpropitious situations continuing to rear their heads.
Honeywell’s Global Aviation Outlook forecasts anticipates a 9% increase in business aviation traffic this year coupled with 15% growth in jet deliveries and expenditures over the next decade. Meanwhile Hopper predicted one of the most expensive holiday travel tickets in the past five years with such high demand for travel.
The jump to business aviation appears to be real. Thanks to competitive pricing from charter providers and flexible scheduling and ease of use, we can expect a continued surge in usage and traffic growth for airports of all sizes across the country.
Even the specter of a recession isn’t weighing too hard on the industry. No one is dismissive of this threat; but there’s an air of confidence as to how everyone will fare and how bad it could possibly be.
I’m also seated in optimistic class. That’s why I see another great year for aviation ahead as we move another year past the pandemic and back to normal. With that in mind, here are my five predictions for 2023:
1. Long-term FAA Reauthorization will pass. Don’t expect big changes, but another stretch of stability lies ahead.
2. Airside electrification will make a big leap. Expect big investments from major airports on all-electric equipment this year.
3. Travel gets back to business. Expect more businesses to invest in business travel as the reality of conducting deals on Zoom doesn’t have the same impact.
4. The pilot shortage gets relief. Airlines are on a hiring spree now. The trained pilots will come online in the new year and flights will return.
5. The recession won’t be as bad as predicted. Famous last words, I know, but the tech sector is getting the brunt of the burn while other areas of the economy are still rolling.
Thanks for reading this year and I can’t wait to see you all in 2023!
