ORLANDO – Multiple factors will be influencing the environmental rules that govern the aviation industry in the years to come, and, not the least of which may be the political climate in Europe.

Climate change is the hot environmental issue on the national political agenda, said Kevin A. Ewing, a partner in the Washington office of Bracewell & Giuliani, in remarks at the 2007 Aviation Industry Expo. The secondary environmental issue is fuel, with these discussions going beyond wasteful consumption and emissions.

Despite the importance the press and politicians seem to be placing on climate change, Ewing predicted it will take five to six years before legislation will emerge from Congress. Even though there has been at least one daily hearing in some congressional committee on some element on global warning since January, Ewing said the issue remains too complex for quick action.

“It will take years to meld its way through Congress,” Ewing said, “just at the Clean Air amendments did in 1990, but these laws will be on the books for 20 years.”

While Congress and the Bush Administration may not be ready to act now, the European Union is. New greenhouse gases, or carbon emissions, rules are currently being created for the EU. Ewing noted that airlines and the aviation sector are for the first time being included in these rules and the trading of carbon credits, which is a free-market attempt to achieve the emission goals.

The new rules will have a “tsunami” impact on the aviation sector in Europe and then in North America. Ewing noted that just as a plane leaving Miami must comply with any local or federal rules when it lands in Germany, it must also contend with local and German federal laws.

At the moment European airlines are taking “polar opposite” strategies. Ryanair is fighting the rules while the airlines of the Virgin Group are embracing, even advocating the changes. In the United States, the Air Transport Association (ATA) contends that any laws from Europe cannot be imposed on U.S. carriers flying into the EU, Ewing said. This is a situation to watch, he noted.

But the EU continent-wide rules are not the only concern, he said. France has proposed its own carbon tax while Switzerland is going to levy a fee for all airport emissions: aircraft, service vehicles and ground equipment.

The EU does not necessarily have tougher environmental regulations, Ewing said, but instead the European Parliament is simply reacting to voters demanding changes in the regulations of greenhouse gases.

In the end, the United States will probably be the follower, not a leader when it comes to setting rules for greenhouse gases, Ewing said.

“Across the board, the American environment laws are still at the top in terms of their credibility, strictness and effectiveness. It is in the narrow area of greenhouse gases and climate change regulations that we have not keep pace. I think this attitude is changing and I think we will have a seat at the talks.”

Left unsaid was the fact that the Bush Administration for much of its tenure questioned the science beyond the global warming theories.

When the United States does adopt new environmental regulations, Ewing predicted that the aviation industry will be in for a shock. The industry, in part because of its past influences, had been able to exempt itself from many of the more stringent of the current regulations. For example, airport ground vehicles are classified as “off-road” vehicles and are not required to meet the stricter emission rules that apply to cars. In the future, he said, all rules will apply to airport vehicles.

Even outside of national policy, Ewing said the aviation industry must contend with state and local laws.

California has already mandated that APUs and other ground equipment at airports be retro-fitted or run on electricity or another alternate fuel. Since the Golden State has a tradition of setting its own standards stricter than the federal government, Ewing said, other progressive states frequently follow suit.

Localities are also setting emission caps that airport operators and service companies must meet. Ewing said that Boston Logan and Dallas-Fort Worth airports now have local emission rules in place.

One other factor that may influence future environment practices of the aviation sector is the private sector itself. Ewing suggested just as the auto industry forced its suppliers to help them comply with new environmental and safety rules so may the airlines or the aircraft manufacturers turn to their supply chain to adopt “green” business practices.

“Innovation can give your firm a competitive advantage in dealing with climate change or it can be at a disadvantage if it refuses to change or innovate,” Ewing said.