The gloves are coming off, really coming off, as Northwest Airlines and its mechanics prepare for a confron-tation that could lead to a strike or lockout, possibly this summer.
Northwest appears to be positioning itself to impose a contract on the mechanics -- and risk a strike by them even during the busy summer travel season. Meanwhile, the local president of the Airline Mechanics Fraternal Association vows the union will strike if Northwest "pushes" it.
The rhetoric and saber-rattling escalated this week after Eagan-based Northwest asked the National Mediation Board to declare that its contract talks with mechanics are at a stalemate.
If federal mediators agree with Northwest, the airline probably will threaten to impose the "industry's most draconian wage and work rules" on those workers, a Wall Street analyst forecast.
Northwest will bet the mechanics will then bargain for a more palatable -- but still painful -- giveback deal rather than strike. But if the mechanics do strike, Northwest will replace them and keep on flying.
That's J.P. Morgan airline analyst Jamie Baker's read on Northwest's strategy for dealing with its mechanics union.
The airline declined to comment on Baker's forecast. But other analysts concur with it.
"A strike represents the worst-case outcome for AMFA," Baker wrote in a Thursday research report. "We believe capitulation is near. Despite their boastful militancy, we expect a negotiated solution," he continued, concluding that "Northwest management believes... it can fly through a strike."
But union President Ted Ludwig insists mechanics are prepared to walk off their jobs if Northwest "pushes us into a strike."
If mechanics strike, Northwest could send more "heavy" aircraft maintenance work, such as plane overhauls, to outside vendors in the U.S. and overseas. As far as the day-to-day maintenance of its planes, Northwest probably "requires no fewer than 900 heads" to service them, J.P. Morgan's Baker estimated.
