Northwest Airlines Corp., which filed for bankruptcy protection in September and has lost almost $4 billion since 2001, likely won't generate "significant" money until 2009 or 2010 even though it needs to spend billions to upgrade its planes, according to an investment banker hired by the carrier to advise it through its bankruptcy.

John Luth, president and chief executive officer of Seabury Group LLC, made the assessment of the airline's profitability in special declaration that supported the airline's application to reject collective bargaining agreements with employees and a request to modify retiree benefits.

The declaration made by Luth showed up in court documents filed on Wednesday with the Bankruptcy Court in New York.

Seabury, a New York-based company, advises bankrupt airlines through their restructurings.

Northwest has said it has been hobbled by rising fuel costs and competition from low-cost carriers as well as wage pressures.

Seabury's Luth said the airline's exit from bankruptcy hinges on obtaining money for the airline during the bankruptcy period and the renewal of the carrier's aging fleet of aircraft. Northwest's 120 DC-9 planes are, on average, almost 35 years old.

"Under its business plan, Northwest will not begin to generate significant liquidity through its operations until 2009 or 2010," Luth noted in his declaration. "Northwest's cash balance is already at unacceptably low levels and is heading lower."

The Seabury Group chief executive said the airline likely will have to borrow money through debtor-in-posession financing.

Luth further noted in his declaration that the carrier is "significantly behind its North American competitors in replacing its mainline fleet due to years of deferral of this large capital expenditure requirement." The Seabury executive estimated that Northwest faces $5 billion to $7 billion of expenses to renew its fleet over the next seven to 10 years.

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