Richmond Airport Airfares could Rise Less This Year Because of AirTran, Experts Say

Jan. 11--Airfares could rise 5 percent to 10 percent this year as airlines try to recover ground lost to high fuel prices and operating expenses, industry experts say.

But there's a silver lining for Richmond-based travelers.

"Everybody's ratcheting up fares, but your 5 to 10 percent will be at a lower level because of the entrance of AirTran" last year, said Darryl Jenkins, a veteran airport consultant.

Jenkins said AirTran Airways' June startup at Richmond International Airport drove down the walk-up fares that local business travelers pay for a ticket bought within three days of a trip.

Walk-up fares to New York, the top market for Richmond-based travelers, have dropped 9 percent from last January. Ticket prices to Atlanta, the second-most popular destination, fell 28.3 percent. No. 3 Chicago saw a 36.7 percent decrease, according to airport marketing director Troy Bell.

For other top destinations, walk-up fares dropped 9.6 percent to Boston and 56 percent to Minneapolis.

"There's just an increased competition for the business traveler," Bell said.

He expects another price drop to New York after JetBlue Airways begins service from Richmond to Kennedy International Airport in late March.

"We're still on a downward slope for our major markets," Bell said.

Business travelers buy more than 60 percent of airline tickets in Richmond.

Vacation or leisure travelers -- who typically book 14 days or more in advance -- have not seen such steep price reductions. But even in this travel segment, Bell said, there has been improvement.

The price of a ticket to New York purchased two weeks or more before a trip fell less than 1 percent from last January. But most other leisure fares fell between 10 percent and 38 percent, according to the airport's price check.

Flying during busy vacation times, such as spring beak, will cost you, though.

"I purchased travel in December for a trip to Fort Lauderdale, Fla., over Easter and the deeply-discounted fares were already gone," Charles Bryson, a public safety communications consultant, wrote in an e-mail. He said he has gotten better business fares, but he questioned how well Richmond International is doing with "deeply discounted advanced purchase fares."

Bell agreed that the cheapest seats often sell out quickly, especially as the airlines shrink seating capacities to boost profits. His advice: Register with the airlines you like to fly and get e-mail notification of fare sales as soon as possible.

Mechanicsville travel agent Conni Evans said her clients are flying out of their hometown airport because of the improved fares.

On a random Saturday she chose in late March, Evans found $228.58 round-trip tickets on AirTran and Delta Air Lines to Atlanta; $223.10 to New York on US Airways and Delta; $277.70 to Orlando, Fla., on US Airways; and $360.20 to Los Angeles on United and AirTran.

Some of those flights are nonstop, but others require connections, said Evans, owner of Departures Unlimited.

"Richmond's really hanging in there," she said. "It makes our job a lot easier. We have more options to offer, and we don't have to take people out of Washington or Norfolk to get them out internationally."

Even flights to popular vacation sites such as Canczn, Mexico, are competitive with those from Northern Virginia airports, she said.

"So which way are you going to go?" she asked. With the price of gas, driving to Washington Dulles or Reagan National "will cost you more," Evans said.

Plus, she said, "you have to worry about getting stuck in traffic."

Jenkins, the airport consultant, predicted a number of small, incremental increases in airfares in 2006. The carriers can afford to charge more because most have shrunk the size of their fleets -- leaving fewer seats that can command higher fares.

"If somebody tries to go up 20 bucks, no one will follow," Jenkins said of the airlines. "If they go up two to four bucks, everybody does."