CHICAGO - Only two of the nation's large, mainline airlines are boldly projecting that 2006 will be a profitable year.

It is no coincidence that the two - United Airlines and US Airways - are also carriers that recently left bankruptcy protection.

Before leaving bankruptcy earlier this month, United projected net income of $11.6 billion this year. US Airways noted a loss of $537 million for 2005 on Tuesday, but said it, too, anticipates a turnaround this year, according to chairman and chief executive Doug Parker.

"Looking forward, we continue to believe that excluding one-time merger-related transition costs, the new US Airways will be profitable in 2006, even at today's projected fuel prices," Parker said.

He did not specify how much he expected the airline to earn, but an airline executive promising profitability is as rare as on-time departures during a blizzard at O'Hare.

Of the six legacy carriers - mainline airlines that offer domestic and international routes - two, Northwest and Delta Air Lines, are operating in bankruptcy. Two others, American Airlines and Continental Airlines, have both said that turning a profit remains a challenge.

High fuel prices and intense competition from discount carriers have hammered the airline industry. Even low-cost carriers have found it difficult to make a profit. Southwest Airlines, the nation's most successful carrier by most measures, made money last year only because it has an extensive system for locking in prices for much of its fuel needs years in advance.

While United and US Airways should be profitable this year, several other carriers could also start making money if several factors come together, said airline analyst Mike Boyd.

"It could be a profitable year if fuel gravitates toward 60 bucks a barrel and there isn't some pricing craziness like we had last year with Independence Air," he said.

Low-cost carriers put pressure on everyone else in the industry to lower fares. But Independence Air, which went out of business last year, was notorious in the industry for undercutting the competition. The airline, which flew to Dulles International Airport outside Washington, had seats as low as $29.

Bankruptcy helps airlines lower some costs, but it's not the only way to cut spending, Boyd said.

"I don't buy this idea that you have to go into bankruptcy to make money in this industry," he said. "American has as good a chance as US Air to make money this year, because of its route system and they have gotten their costs down."

The airlines that have gone through bankruptcy were able to shed billions of dollars through wage and benefit cuts. Both United and US Airways dumped their pension plans, replacing them with less expensive retirement plans.

"They should be able to absorb more punishment if fuel prices go up," said John Pincavage, aviation analyst with Pincavage and Associates. "If you can eliminate a couple billion of dollars in liabilities, it certainly gives you a leg up on those who haven't done that."

The financial results US Airways reported Tuesday reflected the first full quarter of the airline's combined operations with America West Holdings Group Inc. The merger of the two in September was part of US Airways' bankruptcy reorganization plan.

The airline reported a fourth-quarter net loss of $261 million, or $3.26 a share, with much of it attributed to higher fuel prices and merger expenses. The airline did not provide data on how the combined airline's performance would have looked in 2004, so a year-to-year comparison was not possible.

The $537 million loss for 2005 was attributed to changes in the accounting of maintenance expenses. The impact of the change added $202 million to the annual net loss, the airline said.

US Airways shares closed at $32.50, down 65 cents, in trading Tuesday on the New York Stock Exchange.

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