The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has painted a gloomy picture of what to expect next year in world air transport, predicting that this year would be more profitable than the next.

Of course, this is not unconnected with the worsening world economy, which would see less passengers going to the airport in the coming year.

However, IATA has also announced that it is upgrading the air transport industry profit expectations to $6.9 billion (up from $4.0 billion projected in June), emphasising that despite the improvements, profitability at these levels is still exceptionally weak (1.2 per cent net margin) considering the industry's total revenues of $594 billion.

Earlier, the world body had projected a profit of $4.9 billion on revenues of $632 billion for a net margin of just 0.8 per cent in 2011.

"Airlines are going to make a little more money in 2011 than we thought. That is good news. Given the strong headwinds of high oil prices and economic uncertainty, remaining in the black is a great achievement," said IATA's Director General and CEO, Tony Tyler.

"But we should keep the improvement in perspective.

The $2.9 billion bottom line improvement is equal to about a half a percent of revenue. And the margin is a paltry 1.2 per cent. Airlines are competing in a very tough environment. And 2012 will be even more difficult," said Tyler.

IATA's forecast is built around global projected GDP growth of 2.5 per cent in 2011 falling to 2.4 per cent in 2012. Airline financial performance is closely linked to the health of world economies. Whenever GDP growth has slowed below 2.0 per cent the airline industry has lost money.

"We will be perilously close to that level at least through 2012. The industry is brittle. Any shock has the potential to put us in the red, "said Tyler.

This year IATA said passenger demand has been stronger than anticipated given the gloomy economic outlook.

The forecast for the year stands at 5.9 per cent growth (up from 4.4 per cent projected in June). In the year to July, passenger volumes were up over 6 per cent on previous levels.

This would bring total passenger numbers to 2.833 billion (up from the previous forecast of 2.793 billion).

World trade basically stopped growing at the end of 2010. The strong travel trend in 2011 is built on residual confidence from economic optimism at the beginning of the year. While some economies may be more durable - China for example - the overall outlook is for a weaker end to 2011.

Freight: Air freight has stagnated since the start of the year. IATA slashed its full-year volume growth projection from 5.5 per cent to 1.4 per cent. Airlines are expected to carry 46.4 million tonnes of cargo in 2011 (down from the previous forecast of 48.2 million).

Air freight volumes reached their post-recession peak in May 2010, largely driven by re-stocking. July's traffic was 4 per cent lower than that level. It appears unlikely that a revival in air freight will begin before 2012.

Airlines managed to restore passenger load factors back to the 2010 highs. By July the global passenger load factor stood at 83.1 per cent.

Airlines met the better than expected passenger demand with more intense asset utilisation. As much of this capacity also came with belly space for cargo, the freight load factor sank to 45.0 per cent by July.

There is also indication of tighter supply and demand conditions in passenger markets over the first half of the year are expected to offset the impact of a weaker second half.

"As a result our passenger yield growth projection is unchanged at 3.0 per cent. However, an oversupply of belly cargo capacity is expected to see no improvement in freight yields in 2011 (down from our previous projection of 4.0 per cent growth).

On revenue, industry revenue projections are relatively unchanged. Stronger passenger markets will see passenger revenues rise to $464 billion (up $7 billion from the June forecast).

Meanwhile, weaker freight markets will see freight revenue projections fall to $67 billion (down $5 billion compared to the June forecast).

IATA also projected that oil prices have remained consistent with the previous forecast of $110/barrel (Brent Crude). This is 39 per cent higher than the $79.4 average price of 2010. A total fuel bill of $176 billion is expected to account for 30 per cent of industry costs.

The overall industry outlook grows weaker in 2012. Debt-burdened Western economies look set for an extended period of weak economic growth - or worse.

While developing economies look to be in much better shape, the prospects for industry growth are limited because many transport linkages are with developed nations. The fourth quarter of 2011 and the first half of 2012 may well see the weakest point for air transport markets.

The industry forecast of a $4.9 billion profit is based on: Passenger markets that will grow by 4.6 per cent (slower than the 5.9 per cent projected for 2011), but with yield growth falling to 1.7 per cent (about half the 3.0 per cent growth expected in 2011).

Fuel prices are expected to fall slightly based on a crude oil price of $100 per barrel (less than the $110 price expected for 2011).

But due to the effects of fuel hedging delaying the benefits of lower spot prices, the fuel bill will grow to 32 per cent of airline costs (up from 30 per cent in 2011) with a total bill of $201 billion.

"It looks like we are headed for another year in the doldrums. With business confidence declining, it is difficult to see any potential for significant profitable growth. Relatively stronger economic growth and some rebound in cargo will help Asia Pacific airlines to maintain their 2012 profits close to 2011 levels at $2.3 billion.

"The rest of the industry will see declining profitability. And the worst hit is expected to be Europe where the economic crisis means the industry is only expected to return a combined profit of $300 million. A long slow struggle lies ahead," said Tyler.

"As governments seek to re-start troubled economies, a strategic approach to aviation policy would deliver broad economic benefits. Every plane that takes off is a catalyst for economic growth and prosperity.

"Governments must carefully evaluate the negative impact of the current high levels of taxation, absolutely resist increases or new

taxes, and develop policies that support aviation's growth with efficient infrastructure. Time and again aviation has shown its resilience. People need and want to travel. Now is the time to harness the economic possibilities that this presents," said Tyler.