Still Cautious

    May 8, 2003
    Strong Cargo Growth Projected ...Following an average 4 percent overall decline in 2001-2002, system-wide air cargo is expected to increase at better than a 4 percent rate for the foreseeable future, according to the FAA. Over the next ten years, international air cargo will outpace domestic movements in total revenue ton miles (RTMs). Large Air Carriers--Air Cargo
    Aviation Activity
    Total Cargo RTMs* (Millions)
    Historical
    Forecast
    %Change

    Domestic

    International

    System

    1995

    12,416

    10,812

    23,228

    2001

    13,934

    14,547

    28,481

    2002

    13,115

    14,231

    27,346

    2003

    13,770

    14,847

    28,616

    2004

    14,310

    15,659

    29,969

    2014

    20,843

    28,114

    48,956

    2002-2014

    3.9

    5.8

    5.0

    Source:FAA

    *RTM=
    Revenue
    Ton
    Miles

    While Fuel Slow To Rebound
    Total Jet Fuel Consumption U.S. Civil Aviation Aircraft
    (Millions of Gallons)

    Jet Fuel
    U.S. domestic airline fuel utilization is not expected to reach 2000 levels again until 2005-06, according to the FAA. Meanwhile, general aviation is forecast to see more significant growth, after seeing only a modest decline in usage in 2001. Avgas use is expected to grow to an estimated 324 million gallons in 2003.
    Fiscal Year
    U.S. Air Carriers 1/
    General Aviation
    Total
    Domestic Int'l. Total Historical

    1997

    2000

    2002E

    Forecast

    2008

    2014

    Source: DOT/FAA

    13,429

    14,746

    12,691

    15,117

    18,219

    4,818

    5,297

    4,830

    6,099

    8,013

    18,247

    20,043

    17,521

    21,215

    26,232

    642

    998

    1,015

    1,524

    2,262

    18,889

    21,041

    18,536

    22,739

    28,494