Middle East Disruption Drives March Air Cargo Demand Down 4.8%, Says International Air Transport Association

Global air cargo demand declined in March as conflict-related disruption at key Gulf hubs weighed heavily on volumes, according to new data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA).

Total demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTK), fell 4.8% year over year in March, while capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometers (ACTK), declined 4.7%. International operations saw steeper drops, with demand down 5.5% and capacity down 6.8%.

IATA Director General Willie Walsh said the decline was largely driven by “severe disruptions at major Gulf hubs due to war in the Middle East,” compounded by the typical post–Lunar New Year slowdown. Despite the monthly drop, he noted underlying demand trends remain positive, supported by continued growth forecasts from global trade and economic bodies.

From an operating environment standpoint, several indicators point to continued resilience. Global industrial production rose 3.1% year over year in February, marking nearly three years of expansion, while global goods trade increased 8.0%. Manufacturing sentiment also remained in growth territory, with the Purchasing Managers’ Index at 51.4. However, rising costs remain a concern, with jet fuel prices up 106.6% year over year in March, alongside a 43.1% increase in crude oil prices.

Regionally, results were sharply mixed.

Middle Eastern carriers recorded the steepest decline, with demand down 54.3% year over year and capacity down 52.4%, reflecting the direct impact of regional conflict on major cargo hubs.

In contrast, Africa posted the strongest growth, with demand up 7.0% despite a 4.6% drop in capacity. Asia-Pacific carriers also performed well, with demand rising 5.4% and capacity up 5.0%.

European carriers reported a 2.2% increase in demand, though capacity expanded faster at 4.2%, putting some pressure on load factors. Latin America saw demand rise 1.8%, while North America experienced a slight contraction of 1.2%.

Trade lane performance mirrored these regional dynamics. Africa–Asia led all corridors with 22.6% growth, followed by Europe–Asia, which extended its growth streak to 37 consecutive months. Intra-Asia markets also remained strong.

By contrast, routes linked to the Middle East saw sharp declines. Europe–Middle East traffic fell 57.6%, while Middle East–Asia dropped 58.6%, underscoring the scale of disruption to key global cargo flows.

Overall, IATA noted that while geopolitical instability and cost pressures are creating near-term volatility, air cargo networks continue to demonstrate flexibility in supporting global supply chains as they adapt to shifting conditions.