Middle East Disruption Reshapes Air Cargo Flows, Drives Rate Increases

Air cargo markets are experiencing sharp shifts in capacity, routing, and pricing as disruptions in the Middle East ripple across global supply chains, according to WorldACD Market Data.

Weekly figures for early March show global chargeable weight declined 4 percent week on week and 12 percent year on year, with the steepest drops concentrated in the Middle East and South Asia (MESA) region, where volumes fell 36 percent.

Operations across the Gulf were particularly affected, with outbound volumes dropping 62 percent week on week amid flight disruptions and reduced capacity. The impact has forced airlines and forwarders to reroute cargo through alternative regional gateways, while increasing reliance on charter capacity and cross-border trucking to maintain supply chain continuity.

The loss of transit capacity through key Middle Eastern hubs is also driving changes in global network flows. Carriers have added more direct freighter services between Asia and Europe, with capacity on those lanes increasing by double digits as operators bypass traditional hub-and-spoke routings.

Despite the overall decline in volumes, demand has remained resilient enough to push pricing higher. Global airfreight rates rose 6 percent week on week to $2.40 per kilogram, with particularly sharp increases on lanes connecting the Middle East and Europe, where rates surged by more than 50 percent.

Spot rates have seen even stronger gains, reflecting tight capacity and ongoing volatility, while contract rates are also trending upward.

For ground handlers and airport operators, the disruption is translating into more dynamic and complex operating conditions. Increased rerouting, additional charter activity, and higher trucking volumes are placing greater emphasis on flexibility in cargo handling, apron coordination, and landside logistics as supply chains adjust in real time.

Looking ahead, continued instability in the region could sustain upward pressure on rates and prolong network adjustments, particularly as higher fuel costs and war-risk insurance premiums add to the operational burden for airlines.