Middle East Conflict Disrupts Global Air Cargo Networks as Capacity Drops and Rates Rise

Escalating conflict in the Middle East is sending ripples through global air cargo markets, grounding aircraft at major Gulf hubs and forcing airlines and freight forwarders to reroute shipments as capacity tightens and freight rates begin to climb.

Military strikes involving the United States, Israel and Iran in recent days have triggered airspace closures and operational disruptions across parts of the Gulf region, grounding both passenger and freighter aircraft at key transit hubs including Dubai, Doha and Abu Dhabi. The disruption is significant because Middle Eastern carriers such as Emirates SkyCargo, Qatar Airways Cargo and Etihad Cargo play a central role in connecting global trade lanes between Asia, Europe and Africa.

Together, Gulf-based airlines account for roughly 13 percent of global air cargo capacity, making the region one of the most important transit corridors in international freight networks. With several airports and airspace corridors temporarily restricted, the effects are already spreading across global supply chains.

According to aviation analytics data cited by logistics analysts, global air cargo capacity fell about 22 percent between Feb. 28 and early March as airlines suspended flights or rerouted aircraft to avoid the conflict zone. The corridor linking Asia, the Middle East and Europe has been particularly affected, with cargo capacity on that route declining about 39 percent since the start of the disruption.

Because Gulf hubs function as major intercontinental transfer points, the impact extends well beyond cargo moving to or from the Middle East itself. Large volumes of freight moving between Asia and Europe, as well as shipments connecting Asia with Africa and parts of the Americas, typically transit through the region’s airports.

With flights cancelled and transit hubs disrupted, airlines and freight forwarders are rapidly adjusting network strategies to maintain cargo flows. Some carriers have begun increasing direct flights between Asia and Europe to bypass Gulf hubs, while forwarders are securing additional charter capacity to move high-value or time-sensitive goods.

Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, said the conflict is already creating logistical challenges that could expand if the disruption continues.

“The strikes and subsequent retaliation are driving significant logistics disruptions in the region which could start to be felt more broadly if the conflict stretches on,” Levine said.

Kuehne+Nagel has warned that cargo backlogs could begin building in Southeast Asia and China within days as shipments bound for Europe and the United States struggle to secure available air capacity. Air freight plays a critical role in global trade, moving about one-third of global commerce by value, including electronics, pharmaceuticals, aerospace components and perishable goods.

The tightening supply of aircraft capacity is already being reflected in freight pricing. Data from the Freightos Air Index shows rates on several major trade lanes rising since the conflict escalated. Prices from Southeast Asia to Europe have climbed more than 6 percent to about $3.82 per kilogram, while rates from South Asia to Europe have increased roughly 3 percent.

Transpacific routes are also seeing upward pressure. Rates from China to the United States have risen about 15 percent to $6.90 per kilogram, though analysts note that part of that increase may also reflect seasonal demand following the Lunar New Year period.

Industry analysts say the disruption could intensify if the conflict persists or expands further. Some experts warn that air freight rates on the most heavily affected corridors could potentially double or even triple if capacity constraints continue and airlines remain unable to operate through the region.

The conflict is also affecting ocean shipping, compounding pressure on global supply chains. Iranian attacks on vessels near the Strait of Hormuz have led several major container shipping lines to suspend bookings to Gulf ports, creating additional uncertainty for freight flows that typically move between sea and air transport.

At the same time, rising crude oil prices are adding another layer of cost pressure for airlines. Brent crude has surpassed $100 per barrel in recent days, raising the likelihood that jet fuel costs and air cargo fuel surcharges could increase in the coming weeks.

Despite the disruption, logistics analysts note that the air cargo industry has historically adapted quickly to crises by rerouting networks and shifting capacity. However, maintaining supply chain continuity during the current disruption will likely come at a higher cost for shippers as the market adjusts to reduced capacity and longer routing options.