IATA Reports 4.1% Growth in October Air Cargo Demand as Market Momentum Strengthens

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) reported continued momentum in global air cargo markets for October 2025, with demand rising 4.1% year-on-year. International cargo demand grew even faster at 4.8%, marking the sector’s eighth consecutive month of expansion and a new monthly record for volumes.

Capacity increased 5.1% compared to October 2024, and 6.4% for international operations.

Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General, noted that shifting trade patterns are helping sustain the sector’s recovery. “Air cargo demand grew 4.1% year-on-year in October, marking the eighth consecutive month of expansion and setting a new monthly record for volumes. While the Asia–North America trade lane extended its contraction to six months, October saw double-digit or near double-digit growth within Asia, between the Middle East and Europe, and between Europe and Asia. This shifting growth pattern shows that air cargo is enabling global supply chains to adapt to the impact of US tariffs. This positive news is especially significant as the air cargo sector enters the peak fourth quarter shipping season,” he said.

Operating Environment

Key economic indicators remained broadly supportive:

• Global goods trade increased 5.3% year-on-year in September.
• Industrial production grew 3.7%, the fastest pace since March 2025 and the strongest monthly reading since late 2022.
• Jet fuel prices climbed 2.5% in October despite falling crude, driven by a tightening diesel market that pushed the jet crack spread to nearly double last year’s level.
• Manufacturing sentiment strengthened slightly, with the global PMI rising for a third month to 51.45. New export orders slipped to 48.31, signaling continued caution around tariff-related uncertainty.

Regional Performance

Air cargo growth varied across regions:

• Africa posted the strongest performance globally, with demand up 16.6% year-on-year and capacity up 20%.
• Asia-Pacific airlines recorded an 8.3% increase in demand, supported by strong intra-Asian flows; capacity grew 7.3%.
• Europe saw demand rise 4.3%, matching a 4.3% increase in capacity.
• Middle Eastern carriers reported a 5.7% increase in demand, while capacity jumped 10%.
• Latin America recorded a 2.7% decline in demand, though capacity rose 2.8%.
• North America also saw demand fall 2.7%, the weakest result alongside Latin America, with capacity nearly flat at +0.1%.

Industry-wide load factor for October stood at 47.1%.

Trade Lane Trends

Performance across major trade corridors was mixed, with broad growth outside markets linked to North America:

• Europe–Asia led global trade lanes with an 11.7% year-on-year increase, marking its 32nd straight month of expansion.
• Middle East–Asia rose 11.5%, continuing an eight-month run of growth.
• Africa–Asia increased 10.9%, extending four months of gains.
• Within Asia rose 9.0%, marking two full years of uninterrupted growth.
• North America–Europe posted modest growth at 2.6%, extending a 21-month expansion streak.
• Europe–Middle East was broadly flat at +0.1%.
• Within Europe fell 0.7%, its third month of decline.
• Asia–North America contracted 1.4%, marking its sixth consecutive monthly drop as tariff pressures reshape regional flows.