No Thanksgiving Crush: Air Travel will be Busier, but that 2019s Not Saying a lot in A Pandemic Year

Nov. 20—With COVID-19 once again raging throughout the country, this will be a Thanksgiving unlike any other for many people. The same can be said for airlines and airports.

What traditionally is the busiest time of year for air travel may be so again in 2020 — but not tallying up the kind of numbers that have clogged terminals, created long lines and stuffed jets like a Thanksgiving turkey in the past.

Travelers who do venture out will be dealing with a mix of holiday anxieties unheard of a year ago — mandatory face masks, physical distancing, and a virus that shows no sign of relenting.

"It's going to be different," said Nicholas E. Calio, president and CEO of Airlines for America, an industry trade and lobbying group.

The U.S. Transportation Security Administration is predicting the Thanksgiving rush will look a lot like another recent holiday — Columbus Day, when the TSA screened just under 1 million travelers. About a week later, on Oct. 18, it breached the 1 million passenger mark for the first time since March 16.

By comparison, the TSA screened more than 26 million people from Nov. 22 to Dec. 2 during last year's Thanksgiving rush. It handled more than 2.8 million travelers on Dec. 1, 2019 — the busiest day in its 19-year history.

In 2019, Airlines for America predicted 31.6 million people would fly during that Thanksgiving period. This year, the crowds will be nowhere near that, Mr. Calio said during a roundtable discussion Thursday sponsored by the TSA.

The airlines have adjusted for the drop. Airlines for America estimates carriers will be offering 40% fewer seats during this holiday than last year.

Overall, flying is down about 63% this year compared with last, net booked revenue has fallen 79%, and airlines have parked more than a quarter of their fleets because of the lack of demand.

"The situation remains dire for U.S. airlines," Mr. Calio said.

At Pittsburgh International Airport, officials are predicting an uptick in business for Thanksgiving, though nothing close to the travel feasts of the past.

The airport is expecting about 105 departures on the busiest days ( Wednesday, Nov. 25; Saturday, Nov. 28; and Sunday, Nov. 29), compared with about 180 departures during the peak holiday days in past years.

Projections call for up to 11,000 travelers flying out on the peak days this year if all seats in the planes are filled, down sharply from the 18,000 to 19,000 who would do so in a normal year.

"We are preparing for an increase in travelers for the Thanksgiving travel season. However, as a result of the pandemic, of course, we are seeing much less than we normally would during this time," spokesman Bob Kerlik said.

Overall, Michael Boyd, a Colorado-based aviation consultant, anticipates that Thanksgiving travel will be down 35% to 40%. He did find one bright spot in the grim numbers.

"For people flying, it will probably be the nicest Thanksgiving yet. That's 40% less people going through Pittsburgh. That's 40% less people going through security," he said.

American Airlines is increasing its flying about 15% for Thanksgiving, going from an average of 3,500 flights a day to more than 4,000. For November, it has added a Saturday flight between Pittsburgh and Phoenix.

Southwest Airlines, Pittsburgh's largest carrier in terms of passengers, is adding up to 300 flights a day across its system during the holiday period. However, the overall schedule is about 65% of what it operated last year, a spokesman said.

Those who do fly will find extraordinary measures in place to try to protect them and others.

Airlines and many airports, including Pittsburgh, require travelers to wear face coverings on flights or while in the terminal.

Plexiglass barriers are in place at checkpoints, and TSA officers are required to wear masks and gloves. The checkpoints also are routinely disinfected. The TSA has introduced a number of touchless technologies designed to help prevent the virus's spread.

"Overall, I think passengers will see an improved screening process," said David Pekoske, TSA administrator. "In my view, we have done everything we can to make it safe and secure for passengers."

Pittsburgh International has installed more than 2,000 social distancing decals and 130 plexiglass panels. It has deployed four UV-equipped floor scrubbers, added hand-sanitizing stations and reconfigured seating at gates.

The trams that whisk travelers between the landside and airside buildings also are running one after the other to prevent crowding.

During Thursday's roundtable, officials stressed that the best safeguard if you're traveling is still to wear a mask.

Mr. Pekoske, who said nearly 3,000 TSA officers have tested positive for COVID-19 since March, emphasized, "We all have a responsibility to protect each other."

"We have done everything we can to protect our front-line workforce," he said. "I just ask for passengers to do their part in wearing masks."

He added the TSA will request that those who are not wearing masks put one on while going through the checkpoint and will give them one to wear if they don't have one. He said the vast majority of people comply.

Some airlines, Mr. Calio said, have denied passengers boarding for refusing to wear a mask. In a couple of cases, planes have had to turn around in-flight when a traveler didn't comply.

"We are enforcing the face mask vigorously," he said.

Overall, flying during the pandemic is safe, he insisted. He cited one study that found it is no more risky than shopping at a grocery store or eating at a restaurant. Filters inside planes remove 99.9% of all viruses and bacteria, he stated.

Along with a mask, "These measures combined make the risk extremely low," he said.

At the same time, the officials who participated in the roundtable faced questions as to whether they should be encouraging people to fly during a period when coronavirus cases are spiking in many parts of the country.

Rather than discouraging flying, airlines are trying to make air travel as safe as possible based on science and data, Mr. Calio said.

"Do we want to see people travel? Yes, we do. But only if it's safe for them," he said.

Others emphasized that the decision to travel is a personal one.

"Everyone has to make their own decision about how much risk they want to accept. It is always less risky to not travel than to travel," said Todd Hauptli, president and CEO of the American Association of Airport Executives, adding that travel is "extraordinarily safe today."

Mark Belko: 412-263-1262 or [email protected].

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