A new analysis shows that China’s airports are facing a 30 percent drop in passengers in 2020 due to the coronavirus epidemic.
The data from Boyd Group International indicate that China’s airports will handle 945 million arrivals and departures, down from almost 1.4 billion in 2019, a reduction of over 413 million.
International traffic is forecast to decline by over 22 million, while domestic travel within China will plummet by over 391 million. Beijing’s two airports will see over 8 million fewer international arrival and departing passengers, while Shanghai Pudong will experience a seven million drop.
“Even before this epidemic, annual growth rates had already been expected to shrink to 8 percent or less, but now traffic will be in a free fall at least through 2020 – assuming control of the contagion,” noted Michael Boyd, president. “This is not a short-term hit to air transportation in China. For example, foreign visitation will be nearly non-existent for at least the next 12 months.”
Chinese airline industry is in deep difficulty. “Existing fleet capacity is way in excess of expected 2020 demand,” Boyd noted. “Consolidation is in the cards, possibly some shutdowns.”
Incredibly, the Chinese government does not seem to be connected with this reality. It is now issuing directives for factories, transportation centers and airports to reopen. One Chinese airline has outlined how “safe” it is to fly, as long as passengers don’t sit close together, and they don’t use the lavatory. “When the contagion is still spreading and people across the nation are being forced to stay in their homes, missives such as these are of concern,” Boyd added.
This epidemic should not be compared to SARS 2003. “Back then, total China airport traffic was less than 20 percent of that today, and the rapid spread of coronavirus across all parts of China is a fundamentally different situation. Traffic will not bounce back quickly.”
