Even beyond the massive disruptions caused by COVID-19, the air and space industry is poised to undergo major transformations. Changes in business travel, supply chain issues, developments in UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles), and climate change policies are just part of what’s to come. In addition, increases in space tourism, regulation updates, and data trends in systems developments will likely lead to shifts in how business is conducted in the industry.
Technology
Perhaps the most exciting trend in aviation is the meteoric rise of private space-launch capabilities. What was once thought only possible for large governments is now being undertaken by large companies. Soon, smaller companies will jump into the fray as the market expands. Now that space commerce seems more than just a pipe dream, rising competition has brought the industry into a new space race. At Afuzion, we’re already working with a number of players in this industry to develop avionics for space flights.
On a more micro scale, watch for small gadgets creating big changes, specifically in aviation systems. For example, airline passengers are now able to use airline apps to queue for their flights virtually, or to volunteer to take another flight when one is overbooked. Pilots can use apps to save time with automatic flight tracking and logbook updates. We’re likely to see much more usage of portable devices in aviation technology systems thanks to rapid advances in cloud-based computing as well as data storage and security.
The industry has already seen advances in UAV flight this year: The first autonomous flight of a Black Hawk helicopter took place in February 2022. Aviation may be moving to frequent autonomous flights sooner than expected. Better satellite coverage could lead to improved “detect and avoid” GPS capabilities. And increasingly advanced control systems are helping to ensure the safety of unmanned flight.
Technology will continue to enhance both safety and regulatory compliance. For example, parachute safety has advanced thanks to 3D printing innovations and lighter, cheaper recovery systems. Improved data recorders and upgraded instrument panels will drive better decision making and decrease the likelihood of pilot error. And virtual reality headsets and more realistic flight simulators will contribute to greater safety.
COVID
There’s simply no overstating the havoc that COVID has caused in the travel industry. The steep drop-off in tourism and business travel, combined with the severe challenges of maintaining staffing levels and flight-crew and passenger safety, are only part of the problem. Aviation has had to adapt to changing realities and new regulations, oftentimes with very little notice.
During the COVID lockdown, companies became aware of the benefits of remote working and a hybrid workforce, and are likely to continue these practices, at least in some form, even after COVID has abated. Remote work is efficient and cost-effective, and it saves on overhead from travel and real-estate costs. Business that was once conducted in hotel ballrooms and corporate boardrooms is now taking place on video calls. So the drop in business travel is unlikely to rebound to pre-pandemic levels any time soon.
COVID has also created a supply chain crisis, and aerospace suppliers have been deeply affected, especially those in midsize or specialty markets. Skyrocketing gas prices due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict will likely deepen the problem. As a result, we can look for increasing consolidation and mergers for manufacturers and airlines.
On a positive note, there are some promising developments on the technology front, particularly from upgraded “touchless” infrastructure, such as passport scanners, face-scanning technology, and more efficient security scanners. These new systems will likely decrease wait times in terminals and help the industry start to recover from the pandemic.
Climate-Change Policies
Jet traffic dropped significantly during the pandemic, but of course that’s just a temporary drop. In a larger sense, air travel is a significant contributor to climate change, and the Biden administration will very likely step in with new regulations. The goals are ambitious: the administration is aiming for net-zero emissions from the entire U.S. aviation industry by 2050.
In the meantime, the 2021 Aviation Climate Action Plan is already pushing the industry to make significant changes. The plan advocates for energy-efficient engines, the use of hydrogen fuel and batteries for short-haul flights, and in general steers the industry toward the emission standards set by the ICAO (International Civil Aviation Organization.) These new standards will apply to aircraft produced after 2028. In addition, the FAA will continue to implement and improve NextGen, its air traffic control initiative, in an attempt to optimize efficient aircraft routing.
The EPA, under the Clean Air Act, has also proposed standards to reduce emissions from non-military aircraft, which the Biden administration is seeking to expand upon. In addition, the EPA will examine lead pollution amounts from piston gas-powered aircraft, which in turn should encourage the industry to look more closely at the new eVTOL class of electric aircraft. And various members of Congress are set to propose legislation that will target fuel consumption.
Conclusion
Despite what seems like a nonstop flood of bad news, the aviation industry is responding to its many challenges with technological innovations that might have otherwise taken much more time to develop and implement. The aviation industry is well-positioned to meet these challenges, both present and future.
Vance Hilderman is an aviation expert, author and CEO of AFuzion.
