Which result would your company prefer over the course of a year: a 400% improvement over past performance or a 300% greater failure rate? Yeah, that’s what I thought, too, until reports that TSA managed to do both at the same time, depending on how you view the numbers. Consider: It was reported early last year that during regular “red team” testing of airport screening checkpoints, TSA screeners failed to detect the test weapons and explosives 95% of the time, an average success rate of about 1 in 20 tests.

Just recently, the same testing protocols revealed “only” an 80% failure rate: which is a success rate of about 4 out of 20. Thus, a simultaneously terrific 400% improvement and dismal 300% larger failure rate, depending on the view through your rose-colored glasses or your fog-dimmed goggles. The implication is that it’s quite possible the new and improved TSA screeners could be still missing 16 out of every 20 guns and bombs. The only good news I can draw from that is that no airplanes, trains, ships or buses have beem attacked recently, so maybe an $8 billion dollar agency budget is enough. Are you worried yet?

No? Then let’s add some context. On November 9th, DHS issued an updated National Terrorism Advisory System bulletin that warns of “ increased threats against aircraft that include weaponized drones and chemical attacks. Terrorists continue to target commercial aviation and air cargo, including with concealed explosives.” Separately, DHS issued some guidance, and some helpful Suspicious Activity Reporting Indicators and Behaviors, so we’ll know it when we see it.

Finally, quoting the bulletin: DURATION: This Bulletin will expire on May 9, 2018 at 1:00PM EDT… which one wag speculated may be the date on the terrorists’ network memo which says they’ll stop threatening us, so TSA can ease up and not be too concerned about an “improved” 80% failure rate.
My own pessimism extends to questioning the sincerity of all the other pessimists.