U.S. Travel Forecast Projects Continued Industry Growth

U.S. travel spending is projected to reach a record $1.37 trillion in 2026 and grow to $1.42 trillion in 2027, according to the latest U.S. Travel Forecast released by the U.S. Travel Association.

The forecast, developed using Tourism Economics modeling, projects continued growth driven primarily by domestic travel demand despite ongoing economic uncertainty, inflationary pressures and geopolitical instability.

“Travel continues to be one of the most resilient and essential sectors of the U.S. economy,” said Joshua Friedlander, vice president of research for the U.S. Travel Association.

Domestic travel is expected to remain the foundation of the industry, accounting for 87 percent of all travel spending. Domestic leisure travel continues to outperform other segments and is projected to reach $909 billion in spending during 2026.

International inbound travel, which declined in 2025, is expected to return to modest growth in 2026. International visitor spending is projected to increase 1.6 percent to $178 billion, while visitation is forecast to rise 3.4 percent to 70.6 million travelers.

The report notes that inbound international travel is not expected to fully recover to 2019 levels until 2029, contributing to a widening U.S. travel trade deficit as outbound travel continues to exceed inbound visitation.

Industry analysts also identified the 2026 FIFA World Cup as a significant opportunity to accelerate inbound international travel recovery across U.S. gateway markets.

Business travel spending is forecast to increase modestly by 0.8 percent to $319 billion in 2026 as companies continue balancing travel budgets with demand for in-person meetings and events.

The report also highlighted potential risks to the forecast, including energy prices, inflation, geopolitical conflict, declining consumer confidence and barriers affecting international travelers such as visa processing delays.