Summer air travel outlook: Jam-packed flights International fliers expected to set record

Travelers can expect U.S. airlines' planes to be full this summer as a record number of people take international flights, the industry association Airlines for America reported Wednesday.

In its annual summer forecast, the trade group for major U.S. airlines estimated that 179.4 million passengers will fly on their planes inside the USA from June to August, largely unchanged from last summer.

However, the group predicts that 26.8 million people will travel on international flights, surpassing last summer's record of 26.3 million passengers.

At the same time, airlines are holding down the number of seats they make available to try to meet the number of fliers. As a result, planes will be packed pretty much daily.

Each day, U.S. airlines will carry an average of 2.24 million travelers here and around the world for a total of 206.2 million passengers for the summer, the group estimates.

And although that's more than last summer, it's 5% below the all-time summer high of 217.6 million passengers in 2007.

U.S. airlines have raised fares in recent months. And this summer's average round-trip fare inside the USA is $383, vs. $324 two years ago, Travelocity calculates. The average round-trip international fare is $880, compared with $731 two years ago for the travel season of May 18 through Sept. 10.

Airlines for America, however, says fares haven't kept pace with the rate of inflation.

While inflation has been 31% since 2000, average domestic fares have gone up 9%, or 15% if ancillary services are included, the group says. When adjusted for inflation, that would be a 16% drop, excluding the ancillary fees, it says.

"Consumers continue to benefit from air travel prices that lag increases of other goods and services," says John Heimlich, the group's vice president and chief economist.

The trade group also gave a first-quarter assessment of the industry, reporting that rising jet fuel costs continue to be one of the biggest challenges the airlines face.

So far this year, the price of jet fuel is 7% higher than in the same period last year. Jet fuel prices reached an all-time high last year.

Partly as a result of rising fuel costs, the industry reported a first-quarter net loss of $1.73 billion.

Overall fuel costs jumped 19.1% in the first quarter, compared with the same period in 2011. Fuel accounted for one-third of operating expenses.

"The results would have been far worse if not for continued steps in the industry to adapt to (rising fuel costs) and a sluggish economy," Heimlich says.

A key way airlines have dealt with their economic challenges is to reduce the number of seats available to travelers, which has helped keep planes full.

Heimlich says flights will likely be more than 85% full this summer, especially in July.

Full planes often make any flight disruptions difficult for travelers, and thunderstorms are the most common source of summer flight delays and cancellations.

If travelers' flights are canceled or they're delayed and miss a connection, it's hard to book them on subsequent flights because those are full.

Copyright 2012 Gannett Company, Inc.All Rights Reserved