FAA Report Predicted There Could Be 15 More 737 Max Crashes

Dec. 12, 2019

A Federal Aviation Administration internal review determined in December 2018 that there could be as many as 15 crashes during the lifetime of the Boeing 737 Max airplane -- a conclusion that came four months before a second fatal accident in Ethiopia that led to the worldwide grounding of the aircraft.

The document was released to the public for the first time during a Congressional hearing Wednesday into why the FAA certified the flawed 737 Max. FAA Administrator Stephen Dickson also testified about the process to allow the plane to fly again, rejecting Boeing’s timeline that the plane would be certified by year’s end.

“I question ... why the aircraft wasn’t grounded once this analysis was done as opposed to allowing the plane to fly while Boeing worked on a fix,” said Rep. Peter DeFazio, D-Oregon, and chair of the House Transportation Committee.

The FAA instead issued an emergency airworthiness directive on Nov. 7, 2018, telling pilots to refer to 737 Max documentation for flight problems. That directive didn’t use the term Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System, the problematic anti-stall software at fault in the Ethiopia and Indonesia crashes that killed 346 people.

The report assumed that there would be about 4,800 737 Max jets in operation over a 45-year span and no fixes to any software problems or extra training for pilots.

In a statement, Boeing spokesman Peter Pedraza said actions taken after the report “were fully consistent with the FAA’s analysis and established process."

Airlines such as American and Southwest have put pilots at the forefront of their plans to return the 737 Max to service. However, pilots have shown their own concerns about Boeing’s behavior. Dennis Tajer, spokesman for the Allied Pilots Association that represents American Airlines pilots, said there are concerns about last year’s airworthiness directive that omitted references to the MCAS software system.

“Now we are learning the FAA had a study and they gave it to Boeing and they said it was to happen several times over a period of years,” Tajer said. “That’s unnerving.”

Dickson didn’t specifically answer why the internal document wasn’t publicly disclosed, except to say the agency’s 45,000 employees aren’t comfortable with any level of accidents. As for allowing the plane to fly again, he said there are still several steps before it can be recertified. Regulators worldwide grounded the planes in March.

“There a number of processes that have to be completed,” Dickson said in an interview with CNBC’s Phil LeBeau. “If you just do the math, it is going to extend into 2020.”

Boeing has been insistent that it thinks the 737 Max will be recertified by the end of the year and that airlines will have it ready to fly again early in 2020. Fort Worth-based American Airlines and Dallas-based Southwest Airlines said they expect the plane to fly again in early March and have added the planes back onto schedules.

While Boeing is under pressure to get its next-generation 737 recertified, the FAA is under scrutiny from the public and international regulators after criticism that federal inspectors were too cozy with Boeing and left much of the certification process up to the manufacturer’s team.

Dickson joined the FAA in August after a career as a pilot and most recently as the senior vice president of flight operations at Delta Air Lines.

“When the 737 Max is returned to service, it will be because the safety issues have been addressed and pilots have received all the training they need to safely operate the aircraft,” Dickson said in the hearing. “This process is not guided by a calendar or schedule.”

Dickson said there are several steps needed before the 737 Max would be recertified, including investigations into the revamped MCAS software, pilot training documentation and a public comment period.

“We are not delegating anything to Boeing during the aircraft’s return to service,” Dickson said. "We are not even delegating the individual airworthiness certificate for each aircraft. "

Southwest is the largest owner of Boeing 737 Max jets with 34 at the time of the grounding, but it was supposed to take delivery this year of another 25 to 41 planes. American Airlines had 24 when it was grounded, but was supposed to get 16 more by the end of the year.

At the behest of lawmakers calling for accountability, Dickson also said the agency has the right to take “further action” against Boeing.

A replay of the hearing can be watched here:

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