Iran, US Planes and Tankers on the Move: Risk of Tehran-Washington Clash

Dozens of aerial refueling tankers, strategic transport aircraft, and intense logistical activity between the United States, Europe, and the Middle East. This is the picture emerging in recent hours as Washington strengthens its military posture in the region. According to Adnkronos, numerous United States Air Force aircraft, including heavy transport planes C-5 and C-17, have reportedly taken off from both the United States and an American base in the United Kingdom, heading towards the Middle East. This ongoing transfer of forces and assets to an already highly tense area, according to various assessments, would reflect preparations for possible attacks against Iran. The use of transport aircraft of this type, in fact, is usually associated with scenarios of military escalation or the preparation of large-scale operations.

What appears to be a sudden acceleration by Washington comes as the Islamic Republic faces one of its most delicate phases in recent years. Protests erupting in various parts of the country are increasing pressure on a government already paralyzed by a deep economic crisis. But what weighs even more heavily on the Iranian leadership is what happened over 7,000 kilometers away: the surprising US military operation in Caracas, culminating in the capture of Nicolas Maduro, a historical ally of Tehran, and his transfer to a New York prison along with his wife Cilia Flores.

The operation marks a turning point in Washington's strategy, which appears increasingly inclined to translate political threats into concrete military actions. For this reason, the images of the raid in Venezuela have not gone unnoticed in Iran, also due to the increasingly aggressive tones used by Donald Trump against the ayatollahs. On Monday, for the second time in less than a week, the White House chief issued a direct warning: "If they start killing people like they have in the past, I think they will be hit very hard by the United States," he stated aboard Air Force One. The demonstrations began on December 28 against soaring prices and the collapse of the rial. According to the US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (Hrana), over 90 cities were involved, and the toll speaks of at least 36 deaths, mostly demonstrators, and thousands of arrests.

Fueling Tehran's fears were also the threats from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. "Trump and I have expressed a firm position: we will not allow Iran to reconstitute its ballistic missile program and we certainly will not allow it to renew its nuclear program," he declared before the Knesset, while according to the Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar, affiliated with Hezbollah, Trump and Netanyahu reportedly reached an agreement to strike Iran during their year-end meeting in Mar-a-Lago.

The tension is also reflected in the increasingly harsh tones of the Iranian leadership. "All American centers and forces in the region will be legitimate targets for us in case of any action," warned Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. Along the same lines, the army's commander-in-chief, General Amir Hatami, stated that "if the enemy makes a mistake, Iran's response will be stronger than the 12-day war with Israel last June."

For Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, what has happened in recent months confirms a deeply rooted conviction: dialogue with Washington is merely a means to reach a final confrontation: "Those who said that the solution to the country's problems lay in negotiating with the United States have seen what happened - he wrote on X - While Iran was negotiating, the US government was preparing war plans. We will not surrender to the enemy." Meanwhile, the executive has announced a monthly subsidy of approximately 7 dollars for most of the population, presented as a measure to support purchasing power and contain inflation. An amount that barely covers essential goods like eggs, rice, or meat and is unlikely to compensate for a cost of living exceeding 200 dollars per month.

According to Vali Nasr, a professor at Johns Hopkins University and a leading expert on Iran, Tehran now perceives American intentions as "maximalist and hostile." Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House, also speaks of a "triple crisis": economic, political, and now external, with the combined pressure from the United States and Israel and the risk of a new military conflict.

The parallel with Venezuela is inevitable, as highlighted by a CNN analysis. Under Hugo Chavez first and Nicolas Maduro later, Caracas became Iran's main ally in the Western Hemisphere. The similarities between the two regimes, both rich in energy resources, both openly anti-American and affected by sanctions, are evident. But Iran also presents crucial differences: above all, it appears more prepared to resist attempts at regime change from the outside. In Iran, moreover, aversion to foreign intervention is widespread. Even during last summer's Israeli war, political figures of opposing orientations united in condemning the attacks against the country. Finally, the real effects of a possible change in leadership remain unknown.

"The Venezuela case will be observed with great attention, because the removal of the top leader does not necessarily guarantee a substantial change in the system's policies," Vakil emphasized. This latter consideration is also supported by the analysis of Arang Keshavarzian, professor of Middle Eastern & Islamic Studies at New York University, who in a recent interview with Adnkronos highlighted that "last summer and in the past we have seen that Iran can lose high-ranking generals and commanders and the regime seems able to replace them quite easily." For this reason, "the removal of Khamenei from power does not necessarily imply a change of regime and could pave the way for other authoritarian forces within the security apparatus."

The Elon Musk factor must also be included in this picture. A video appeared on the "UK Report" channel on X, specializing in Middle East news, reportedly shows Starlink satellites flying over Iranian territory.

Adnkronos could not verify the origin and authenticity of the video, but if the presence of the satellites is confirmed, it would represent one of the possible precursors of US support for internal rebellion, at least in terms of communications and internet access, which has always been one of the raw nerves of Tehran's control over the population.

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