... much of the discussion centers on economic recovery and pending security regulations for business aviation. Some 100-plus leaders of fixed base operations and others were on hand for the reformulated meeting hosted by the National Air Transportation Association. The Leadership Conference is now being held in tandem with the NBAA Schedulers & Dispatchers Conference, being held at the convention center here the rest of the week.
Richard Aboulafia, VP of analysis for the Teal Group Corporation and a favorite on the prognostication circuit, led off the NATA event saying that “I feel very good about saying the worst is over. We’ve got stabilization. The next step is recovery; then growth.†During the past year, according to Aboulafia, business aviation in North America has seen a 30.5 percent reduction in utilization, with the most notable drops being in the mid-size and smaller corporate aircraft segments.
Aboulafia also says that the used aircraft segment has also made the turn from its downward spiral and “things have stabilized.†Yet, there is still a glut of sorts in the marketplace, which will in turn impact new aircraft deliveries for some time.
He is optimistic, he says, about business aviation long term, and forecasts that some 10,117 new aircraft will be delivered over the next ten years, at a value of some $168.2 billion. That said, Aboulafia sees a sluggish 2010. Looking forward he says the key barometer for business aviation is corporate profits, and he recommends tracking the Bureau of Economic Analysis (www.bea.gov) for those numbers.
On the security front, one of the original leaders of the Transportation Security Administration – Asa Hutchinson – was on hand and expressed concern that the agency has been without a leader for the past year. A central issue regarding that appointment has been the unionization of TSA employees, which he opposes. Comments Hutchinson, “I’m opposed to the unionization of TSA because it’s a security organization.†He fears that TSA could find itself having to negotiate with union bosses to transfer employees or make other moves.
Regarding business aviation, Hutchinson says that there is a danger of TSA shifting its strategy and treating bizav like the airlines. It is not the same threat, according to Hutchinson, who comments that TSA should “analyze the risks, first and foremost†before imposing new security requirements on the industry. He does point out that TSA’s original Large Aircraft Security Program proposal was met with such industry opposition that the agency pulled it for a rethink. In all more than 7,000 industry comments were sent to TSA, which got the agency’s attention. “Your voice was heard,†he says.
Thanks for reading. jfi
