United Continental Holdings [United States] falls in weak trading with rising open interest December 08, 2011

STOCKS

United Continental Holdings (UAL.N) dropped 98.0c (or 4.7%) to close at US$19.71, ending a nine-day streak of rises. Compared with the Dow Jones Industrials index, which fell 198.7 points (or 1.6%) on the day, this was a relative price change of -3.1%.

OPEN INTEREST TREND AND INTERPRETATION

Price Change % 1-day 1-month 1-year UAL -4.74% 8.3% -22.46% Airlines -1.38% -6.21% -33.38% DJIA -1.63% -1.42% 5.5%

Same day trend: open interest rose for a second day; the stock fell, ending a nine-day streak of rises. Open interest jumped 7.9% from 329,482 to 355,538. Combined with the price falling 4.7% this suggests the market is weak.

Trailing one week trend: open interest rose for a third week. Open interest soared 10.7% from 321,054 a week ago while the stock increased 2.3% from US$19.12 a week ago. Combined with the rising price this suggests the market is strong.

Trailing one month trend: open interest soared 18.4% from 300,411 a month ago while the stock surged 8.3% from US$18.74 a month ago. Combined with the rising price this also suggests the market is strong.

Open interest as % of issued capital: 35,553,800 shares, representing 10.8% of the issued capital.

[ranked 208 out of 1724 stocks in descending order]

Put:call ratio: open interest contracts on exchange traded options included 178,950 put contracts and 176,588 call contracts.

The put:call ratio was 1.0, up 22.2% for the day, down 1.5% in the past week and down 16.1% in the past month.

Top three traded call options [volume of contracts in brackets; 1 contract is 100 shares]

Exercise US$25.0; Expires Jan 21: 14.0c down 39.1% [2083]

Exercise US$20.0; Expires Mar 17: US$2.01 down 23.0% [1463]

Exercise US$20.0; Expires Dec 17: 56.0c down 46.7% [1284]

Top three traded put options [volume of contracts in brackets; 1 contract is 100 shares]

Exercise US$20.0; Expires Dec 17: 81.0c up 125.0% [1103]

Exercise US$20.0; Expires Mar 17: US$2.36 up 31.1% [916]

Exercise US$17.50; Expires Jan 21: 56.0c up 43.6% [281]

PRICE VOLUME DYNAMICS

Volatility: the stock traded between an intraday high of US$20.44 and a two-day low of US$19.54, suggesting a trading opportunity between peaks and troughs. The average daily volatility of 4.4% places the stock in the 1st quartile in the market meaning it is highly volatile.

Volume: there were 6,635,006 shares worth US$130.8 million traded. The volume was 0.9 times average trading of 7,463,488 shares.

% Discount to high: the last price is at a discount of 28.9% to the 12-month high of US$27.72 ten months ago on 15 Feb, 2011.

% Premium to low: the last price is at a premium of 27.1% to the 12-month low of US$15.51 fifteen-days ago on 23 Nov, 2011.

Volume weighted price (VWP): the price is at a premium of 9.2% to the 1-month volume weighted average price of US$18.046. Given that this premium has been under 9.2% eighty-five times and over 9.2% twenty-three times in the last year, the downside:upside probability is estimated at 85:23 or 3.7:1.

Beta: The Beta of this stock is 1.16. A Beta greater than 1 suggests this is a high risk, high return stock with volatility greater than that of the market.

Standard Deviation (SD): SD is a statistical measure of deviation from the mean. The SD of 3.2% gives it a percentile rank of 78 meaning that 78% of stocks in the global market are less volatile than this stock.

Trailing month: in the last 21 trading sessions there has been a net rise of 10.42%; the stock has advanced 10 times and the biggest one day rise was 6.4% on Dec 01.

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PRICE PERFORMANCE RANK IN SECTORS

The stock is in 2 sectors.

The following index and sectors fell setting the trend for its fall of 4.7%:

Dow Jones Industrials index of 30 stocks traded today, which was down 198.7 points or 1.6% to 11,997.7;

The index of Top 5000 stocks by MCap, which was down 121.3 points or 1.5% to 8,182.4;

Airlines sector of 33 stocks traded today, which was down 78.9 points or 1.4% to 5,651.7

Percentile Rank 1-day 1-month 6-months UAL 7 95 53 Airlines 42 35 33 DJIA 38 61 77

RELATIVE VALUATION INDICATORS [RVI] FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

The stock has a score of 5 out of 9 set by Joseph Piotroski [pass mark >=5 ]:

Positive net income; Positive operating cashflow; Good quality of earnings [operating cashflow exceeds net income]; Improvement in long-term debt to total assets from 0.34 to 0.29; Improvement in current ratio from 0.79% to 0.95%.

Other Bullish Signals:

- The earnings yield of 3.88% is 1.9 times the 10-year bond yield of 2.0%.

- Price/Sales of 0.28 versus sector average of 0.4 and market average of 1.0.

- Return on Equity of 14.6% versus sector average of 10.6% and market average of 10.8%.

Bearish Signals:

- Price/Earnings of 25.8 versus sector average of 10.1 and market average of 13.4.

- Total Liabilities/ EBITDA of 6.0 is more than or equal to 5, this compares unfavourably with Joseph Piotroski benchmark of 5.

- Return on Assets of 0.6% versus sector average of 2.7% and market average of 1.8%.

- Return on Capital Employed of 3.9% versus sector average of 6.7% and market average of 11.4%.

RELATIVE VALUATION INDICATORS [RVI] TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Bullish Signals:- The price increased 2.3% in the last week.

- This was on volume of 1.1 times average for week.

- The price to 50-day EMAP ratio is 1.05, a bullish indicator. In the past 50 days this ratio has exceeded 1.05 six times suggesting further upside. The 50-day EMAP has increased to US$18.685. An increase is another bullish indicator.

- The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator of 12-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) minus the 26-day EMA is positive suggesting a bullish signal. Both the 12-day EMA as well as the 26-day EMA are rising, another bullish signal.

Bearish Signals:

- In the global market of top 5000 stocks by MCap, the stock has a 6-month relative strength of 53 which means it has outperformed 53% of its global peers.

- In the last three months the stock has hit a new 52-week low once.

- The price to 200-day MAP ratio is 0.94, a bearish indicator. In the past 200 days this ratio has been under 0.94 116 times suggesting further downside. The 50-day MAP of US$18.834 is lower than the 200-day MAP of US$20.975, a bearish indicator. The 200-day MAP has decreased to US$20.975. A decrease is another bearish indicator.

- the Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 71.8 has penetrated the overbought line of 70; the Stochastic indicator of 93.1 has broken through the overbought line of 80.

SHAREHOLER RETURNS

Trailing one week: the stock rose four times (80% of the time) and fell once (20% of the time). The volume was 1.1 times average trading of 37,317,440 shares. The value of US$1,000 invested a week ago is US$1,097 [vs USD999 for the Dow Jones Industrials index], for a capital gain of US$97 (or rise of 9.7%).

Trailing one month: the stock rose twelve times (57% of the time) and fell nine times (43% of the time). The volume was 0.99 times average trading of 164,196,736 shares. The value of US$1,000 invested a month ago is US$1,083 [vs USD988 for the Dow Jones Industrials index], for a capital gain of US$83 (or rise of 8.3%).

Trailing one year: the value of US$1,000 invested one year ago is US$775 [vs USD1,084 for the Dow Jones Industrials index], for a capital loss of US$225. The total return to shareholders for 1 year is -22.5%.

Trailing five years: the value of US$1,000 invested five years ago is US$459, for a capital loss of US$541.

The present value of US$1000 invested at a previous date is shown below:

PV1000 1-week 1-month 1-year UAL Stock 1,097 1,083 775 Airlines USD983 USD938 USD669 DJIA USD999 USD988 USD1,084

FINANCIALS

Quarterly Report released on December 06, 2011:

In the quarter to September 30, 2011 total revenue of US$10.2 billion; net profit of US$653 million; EPS of US$1.71.

Annual Report for the year ended December 31, 2010 (year-on-year comparisons with previous corresponding period)-

EPS of $US1.08; debt to equity of 8.0.

Favourable Changes: total liabilities to EBITDA down 33.8% to 6.0. While this compares unfavourably with the Joseph Piotroski benchmark of <5, the trend is favourable; although the Total Liabilities to Operating Cash Flow ratio of 6.7 also compares unfavourably with the Joseph Piotroski benchmark of <4, it had improved by 13.2% from the previous year.; total liabilities to total assets down 20.0% to 0.3; current ratio up 20.3% to 1.0.

Unfavourable Changes: Net tangible assets per share deterioration 6.9% to $US-37.26; Sales to total assets down 32.2% to 0.6.

Major Common Size Ratios: fixed assets to total assets down from 52.7% to 42.8%; total current assets to total assets up from 27.3% to 30.4%; other non-current assets to total assets up from 20.0% to 26.8%; intangibles to total assets up from 13.1% to 23.8%; cash to total assets up from 16.3% to 20.4%; EBITDA to Sales up from 5.0% to 9.2%; depreciation to sales down from 5.6% to 4.6%; interest expenses to sales down from 3.5% to 3.4%.

MARKET SHARE

United Continental Holdings vs Airlines sector [Airlines sector Total in Brackets]

Net Profit of US$253 million [2.3% of aggregate sector net profit of US$11.1 billion; down from 11.8% in the previous year.]

EBIT of US$1 billion [5.6% of aggregate sector EBIT of US$18.7 billion; up from -5.1% in the previous year.]

ISSUED CAPITAL

Based on 330,773,503 issued shares the market capitalisation is US$6.5 billion. It is the world's largest Airlines company by market capitalisation.

ACTIVITIES

It is the world's 4th largest Airlines company by total revenue.

United Continental Holdings, Inc., formerly UAL Corporation, incorporated on December 30, 1968, is a holding company. The Company operates through its subsidiaries, Continental Airlines, Inc. (Continental) and United Air Lines, Inc. (United). United s and Continental s operations consist primarily of the transportation of persons, property and mail throughout the United States and abroad. United is an international carriers based in the United States. United, including regional flights operated on United s behalf under capacity purchase agreements with other carriers, operates approximately 3,400 flights a day to more than 230 United States domestic and international destinations from its hubs in Los Angeles, San Francisco, Denver, Chicago, Washington, D.C. and Tokyo and has global air rights in the Asia-Pacific region, Europe and Latin America.

United is a founding member of Star Alliance, which overall offers 21,200 daily flights to 1,172 airports in 181 countries through its 28 member airlines. Continental, together with its wholly owned subsidiary, Continental Micronesia, Inc., and including regional flights operated on Continental s behalf under capacity purchase agreements with other carriers, has more than 2,200 daily departures throughout the Americas, Europe and Asia, serving 117 domestic and 127 international destinations. Continental is also a member of Star Alliance, which overall offers 21,200 daily flights to 1,172 airports in 181 countries through its 28 member airlines.

TOP MANAGEMENT

The chief executive officer is Jeffery A. Smisek, the chairman is Glenn F. Tilton and the chief financial officer is Zane Rowe.

REPORTED BUYING AND SELLING

Reported Buying:

August 29: United Continental Holdings insider buys

United Continental Holdings (UAL.N) insider Smisek Jeffery A bought 4,000 shares worth approximately US$71,680 on August 26, 2011. The last price was USD17.05.

August 25: United Continental Holdings insider buys

United Continental Holdings (UAL.N) insider Smisek Jeffery A bought 5,000 shares worth approximately US$87,600 on August 24, 2011. The last price was USD17.24.

Reported Selling:

July 28: United Continental Holdings insider sells

United Continental Holdings (UAL.N) insider Tilton Glenn F sold 32,083 shares worth approximately US$579,419 on July 27, 2011. The selling price was USD18.57.

July 14: United Continental Holdings insider sells

United Continental Holdings (UAL.N) insider Tilton Glenn F sold 31,884 shares worth approximately US$691,883 on July 13, 2011. The last price was USD21.85.

June 30: United Continental Holdings insider sells

United Continental Holdings (UAL.N) insider Tilton Glenn F sold 31,883 shares worth approximately US$730,440 on June 29, 2011. The last price was USD23.04.

BUSINESS NEWS ROUND UP

The last 5 snippets are:

September 21: United Continental Holdings Introduces 2012 MileagePlus Loyalty Program

[News Story] CHICAGO, Sept. 21, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- United Continental Holdings (NYSE: UAL) today announced the details of its MileagePlus loyalty program for 2012, including new benefits and services for United's and Continental's most-frequent flyers, more options for members to redeem their miles and additional recognition for customers who purchase tickets in premium cabins or at premium economy fare classes."With MileagePlus, we are building the world's most-rewarding loyalty program and reaching another important milestone in the merger of United and Continental," said Jeff Foland, United executive vice president and president of Mileage Plus Holdings, LLC.

July 14: United Continental Holdings to Hold Live Webcast of Second Quarter 2011 Financial Results

[News Story] http://www.nasdaq.com/aspx/companynewsStoryPrint.aspxstoryid=201107140830pr_news_usprx____cg35042 Source: NASDAQ Stock Exchange

June 21: Aviation Partners Boeing Confirms United Order for 767-300ER Blended Winglets

[News Story] LE BOURGET, France, June 20, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- Aviation Partners Boeing (APB) today announced that United Continental Holdings Inc., the parent company of United Airlines and Continental Airlines, has ordered Blended Winglets for its 767-300ERs. Initial installations of the systems, on 14 aircraft, are planned to commence in early 2012.

May 20: United Launches Daily Nonstop Flights Between Los Angeles and Shanghai

[News Story] LOS ANGELES, May 20, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- United Airlines today will launch its first-ever service between Los Angeles and Shanghai, China, with daily nonstop flights from the airline's hub at Los AngelesInternational Airport (LAX). The new route provides a link between the second-largest city in the U.S.

May 18: United and Continental Take More Steps to Create a Consistent Customer Travel Experience

[News Story] CHICAGO, May 18, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- United Continental Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: UAL) today unveiled a series of changes to provide a more consistent travel experience for customers on United Airlines and Continental Airlines, marking another milestone in the integration of the two carriers.

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