US Airways Group falls in weak trading with rising open interest
STOCKS
US Airways Group (LCC.N), NYSE's 7th largest airlines company by market capitalisation, decreased 11.0c (or 2.0%) to close at US$5.50. Compared with the NYSE U.S. 100 index, which fell 38.2 points (or 0.7%) on the day, this was a relative price change of -1.3%.
OPEN INTEREST TREND AND INTERPRETATION
Price Change % 1-day 1-month 1-year LCC -1.96% 6.38% -52.42% Airlines -0.45% -22.1% NYID -0.69% 10.78% 1.11%Same day trend: open interest rose for a second day. Open interest rose 0.5% from 91,961 to 92,423. Combined with the price falling 2.0% this suggests the market is weak.
Trailing one week trend: open interest fell, ending a three-week streak of rises. Open interest slid 5.1% from 97,421 a week ago while the stock dropped 4.7% from US$5.94 a week ago. Combined with the falling price this suggests the market is strengthening.
Trailing one month trend: open interest soared 56.6% from 59,013 a month ago while the stock advanced 6.4% from US$5.0 a month ago. Combined with the rising price this suggests the market is strong.
Open interest as % of issued capital: 9,242,300 shares, representing 5.7% of the issued capital.
[ranked 159 out of 1562 stocks in descending order]
2011 Open interest: 42,115 contracts, representing 45.6% of total.
2012 to 2013 Open interest: 50,308 contracts, representing 54.4% of total.
Put:call ratio: open interest contracts on exchange traded options included 46,493 put contracts and 45,930 call contracts.
The put:call ratio was 1.0, down 0.4% for the day, up 11.3% in the past week and down 12.5% in the past month.
Top three traded call options [1 contract is 100 shares]
Exercise US$6.0; Expires Nov 19: 12.0c down 25.0%; volume 341; open interest 5873
Exercise US$5.0; Expires Nov 19: 65.0c up 1.6%; volume 158; open interest 811
Exercise US$6.0; Expires Jan 21: 50.0c down 7.4%; volume 53; open interest 5996
Top three traded put options [1 contract is 100 shares]
Exercise US$4.0; Expires Jan 21: 22.0c down 21.4%; volume 85; open interest 1720
Exercise US$5.0; Expires Nov 19: 13.0c down 38.1%; volume 43; open interest 1255
Exercise US$6.0; Expires Jan 21: US$1.04 down 18.1%; volume 3; open interest 5822
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Downtrend
Support: the support price is hovering at the US$4.95 level. Volume traded at the strong support price zone was 1.0 time average during the single occasion when the support price was breached. In the last month the lowest price was US$4.95 on Oct 05.
Resistance: previous rallies have been met with resistance at US$6.48. However, selling pressure at that level has been moderate; volume was 1.0 times average during the three occasions when the resistance price was breached in the last one month. In the last one month the highest was at US$6.48 on Oct 14, the second highest at US$6.437 on Oct 12. The third advance halted at US$6.36 on Oct 13.
Falls to Rises: The stock fell in four out of last 5 trading days, for a 5-day fall of 4.7% to close at US$5.50. In the last three months the number of falls outnumbered rises 34:32 or 1.06:1.
Trailing month: in the last 21 trading sessions there has been a net rise of 5.57%; the stock has advanced 20 times and the biggest one day rise was 9.6% on Oct 11.
PRICE DYNAMICS
Volatility: the stock traded between an intraday low of US$5.358 and a high of US$5.57, suggesting a trading opportunity between peaks and troughs. The average daily volatility of 4.9% places the stock in the 1st quartile in the market meaning it is highly volatile.
% Premium to low: the last price is at a premium of 21.4% to the 12-month low of US$4.53 one month ago on 03 Oct, 2011.
Volume weighted price (VWP): the price is at a discount of 3.9% to the 1-month volume weighted average price of US$5.722, which may appeal as a value proposition.
Beta: The Beta of this stock is 0.94. A Beta lower than 1 suggests this is a low risk, low return stock with volatility less than that of the market.
Standard Deviation (SD): SD is a statistical measure of deviation from the mean. The SD of 3.8% gives it a percentile rank of 82 meaning that 82% of stocks in the NYSE market are less volatile than this stock.
AGGREGATE VOLUMES, PRICES AND TURNOVER PERIOD
[Volume Index or VI in brackets; 1 is average]
New York: LCC.N 6,493,294 [VI of 0.9]; volume 94.95% of aggregate. Price: US$5.50.
BATS: LCC.BATS 345,219 [VI of 0.7]; volume 5.05% of aggregate. Price: US$5.50.
Aggregate volume: there were 6,838,513 shares worth US$37.6 million traded. The aggregate volume was 0.97 times average trading of 7,055,539 shares.
Access comprehensive Stock Research on http://www.buysellsignals.com/19611498
PRICE PERFORMANCE RANK IN INDEX AND SECTORS
The stock is in 1 index and 2 sectors.
The following index and sectors fell setting the trend for its fall of 2.0%:
NYSE U.S. 100 index which was down 38.2 points or 0.7% to 5,474.7,
The Total NYSE Market of 1868 stocks and 40 units traded today, which was down 38.7 points or 0.6% to 6,157.8,
Airlines sector of 10 stocks traded today, which was down 23.3 points or 0.4% to 5,189.4
Percentile Rank 1-day 1-month 6-months LCC 17 26 7 Airlines 52 61 36 NYID 44 42 59RELATIVE VALUATION INDICATORS [RVI] FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
The stock meets the following value criteria set by Benjamin Graham:
-"A P/E ratio down to less than four-tenth of the highest average P/E ratio the stock attained in the most recent five years"; the P/E of 1.8 is 0.09 times the highest average P/E of 19.0 reached on Apr 24, 2007.
The stock has a score of 5 out of 9 set by Joseph Piotroski [pass mark >=5 ]:
Positive net income; Positive operating cashflow; Good quality of earnings [operating cashflow exceeds net income]; Improvement in current ratio from 0.84% to 1.02%; Improvement in asset turnover [growth in revenue of 13.86% exceeded growth in assets of 4.9%].
Other Bullish Signals:
- Price/Earnings of 1.8 versus sector average of 16.0 and market average of 15.9.
- Return on Assets of 6.4% versus sector average of 2.0% and market average of 2.2%.
- Return on Capital Employed of 16.7% versus sector average of 6.5% and market average of 12.2%.
Bearish Signals:
- Total Liabilities/ EBITDA of 7.2 is more than or equal to 5, this compares unfavourably with the Joseph Piotroski benchmark of 5.
- The average annual compound return on the share price in the last 5 years was -35.0%, underperforming the average annual compound return on the NYSE U.S. 100 index of -2.9%
RELATIVE VALUATION INDICATORS [RVI] TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bullish Signals:
- The price advanced 6.4% in the last month.
- The Stochastic indicator of 18.9 has broken through the oversold line of 20;.
Bearish Signals:
- The price dropped 4.7% in the last week.
- Compared with the NYSE U.S. 100 index which fell 2.8% for the week, this represented a relative price decrease of 1.8% for the week.
- In the NYSE market of 1,868 stocks and 40 units traded today, the stock has a 6-month relative strength of 7 indicating it is trailing 93.0% of the market.
- The price to 50-day EMAP ratio is 0.95, a bearish indicator. In the past 200 days this ratio has been under 0.95 23 times suggesting further downside. The 50-day EMAP has decreased to US$5.81. A decrease is another bearish indicator.
- The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator of 12-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) minus the 26-day EMA is negative suggesting a bearish signal. Both the 12-day EMA as well as the 26-day EMA are falling, another bearish signal.
- In the last three months the stock has hit a new 52-week low four times, pointing to a downtrend.
- In the past 200 days this ratio has been under 0.72 54 times suggesting further downside. The stock is trading below both its MAPs and the 50-day MAP of US$5.637 is lower than the 200-day MAP of US$7.683, a bearish indicator. The 200-day MAP has decreased to US$7.683. A decrease is another bearish indicator.
- The price to 200-day MAP ratio is 0.72, a bearish indicator.
Breakdown:
- In the last three months the stock has hit a new 52-week low four times, pointing to a downtrend.
SHAREHOLDER RETURNS
Trailing one week: the stock fell four times (80% of the time) and rose once (20% of the time). The aggregate volume was 0.9 times average trading of 35,486,445 shares. The value of US$1,000 invested a week ago is US$943 [vs US$973 for the NYSE U.S. 100 index], for a capital loss of US$57(or loss of 5.7%).
Trailing one month: the stock rose thirteen times (57% of the time) and fell ten times (43% of the time). The aggregate volume was 0.9 times average trading of 156,140,358 shares. The value of US$1,000 invested a month ago is US$1,064 [vs US$1,110 for the NYSE U.S. 100 index], for a capital gain of US$64(or rise of 6.4%).
Trailing one year: the value of US$1,000 invested one year ago is US$476 [vs US$1,037 for the NYSE U.S. 100 index], for a capital loss of US$524. The total return to shareholders for 1 year is -52.4%.
Trailing five years: the value of US$1,000 invested five years ago is US$116, for a capital loss of US$884.
The present value of US$1000 invested at a previous date is shown below:
$1000 1-week 1-month 1-year LCC 943 1,064 476 Airlines 975 783 NYID 973 1,110 1,037FINANCIALS
Quarterly Report; year-on-year comparisons with previous corresponding period:
In the quarter to June 30, 2011 total revenue was up 10.5% to US$3.5 billion; net profit slumped 67.5% to US$91 million; EPS of 57.0c.
Annual Report for the year ended December 31, 2010 (year-on-year comparisons with previous corresponding period)-
Total liabilities to Total assets of 1.0.
Favourable Changes: total liabilities to EBITDA down 72.2% to 7.2. While this compares unfavourably with the Joseph Piotroski benchmark of <5, the trend is favourable; although the Total Liabilities to Operating Cash Flow ratio of 9.6 also compares unfavourably with the Joseph Piotroski benchmark of <4, it had improved by 92.7% from the previous year.; current ratio up 21.4% to 1.0; Sales to total assets up 8.6% to 1.5.
Major Common Size Ratios: fixed assets to total assets down from 49.6% to 48.5%; total current assets to total assets up from 31.3% to 37.2%; cash to total assets up from 17.4% to 23.8%; other non-current assets to total assets down from 19.1% to 14.2%; intangibles to total assets down from 6.7% to 6.1%; EBITDA to Sales up from 2.9% to 9.1%; EBITD to Sales up from 2.9% to 9.1%; EBIT to Sales up from 0.6% to 7.0%.
MARKET SHARE
US Airways Group vs Airlines sector [Airlines sector Total in Brackets]
Net Profit of US$502 million [15.3% of aggregate sector net profit of US$3.3 billion; up from 10.8% in the previous year.]
EBIT of US$831 million [10.5% of aggregate sector EBIT of US$7.9 billion; up from 4.9% in the previous year.]
FUNDAMENTALS
Valuation LCC NYID P/E 1.8x 13.4x Size LCC Rank in Airlines MCAP (US$) 891.5 million 6 Assets (US$) 7.8 billion 6 Performance LCC NYID ROA 6.4% 2.6%ISSUED CAPITAL
Based on 162,082,473 issued equity shares the market capitalisation is US$891.5 million. It is NYSE's 6th largest Airlines company by total revenue.
ACTIVITIES
US Airways Group, Inc. (US Airways Group) is a holding company whose primary business activity is the operation of a network air carrier through its wholly owned subsidiaries, US Airways, Inc. (US Airways), Piedmont Airlines, Inc. (Piedmont), PSA Airlines, Inc. (PSA), Material Services Company, Inc. (MSC) and Airways Assurance Limited, LLC (AAL). Passenger revenues account for substantiall portion of the Company's operating revenues.
TOP MANAGEMENT
The chief financial officer is Derek J. Kerr and the chairman and chief executive officer is W. Douglas Parker.
BUSINESS NEWS ROUND UP
The last 5 company announcements are:
October 05: US Airways Reports Record September Load Factor
[News Story] US Airways Group, Inc. (NYSE: LCC) today announced September, quarter and year-to-date 2011 traffic results. Mainline revenue passenger miles (RPMs. for the month were 4.9 billion, down 0.9 percent versus September 2010. Mainline capacity was 5.8 billion available seat miles (ASMs., down 2.7 percent versus September 2010.
August 26: US Airways Reduces East Coast Schedule in Anticipation of Hurricane Irene
[News Story] US Airways (NYSE: LCC) today announced that it is proactively canceling flights along the East Coast as a result of Hurricane Irene's projected path. Flight schedules at Washington Reagan, Philadelphia International Airport, New York's LaGuardia, John F. Kennedy and Newark airports and Boston Logan, as well as other cities in the Northeast and mid-Atlantic, will be reduced as the airline works to ensure the safety of its customers, employees and equipment.Customers are strongly encouraged to check flight status at usairways.com or by texting their flight number to TEXTUS before arriving at the airport.
July 18: Equity Research on US Airways Group Inc. and Delta Air Lines Inc. -- Major Airlines Dealing With Negative Flyer Sentiment
[News Story] NEW YORK, NY -- (MARKET WIRE) -- 07/18/11 -- www.shinesrooms.com has a handpicked team of market professionals with over 100 years of combined investing experience. Today they are providing members comprehensive research on the Major Airlines industry and are offering free analytical research on US Airways Group Inc.(NYSE: LCC) and Delta Air Lines Inc.(NYSE: DAL).
June 21: US Airways Announces $388 Million Aircraft Financing
[News Story] TEMPE, Ariz.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- US Airways, Inc. ("US Airways" or the "Company"), a wholly-owned subsidiary of US Airways Group, Inc. (NYSE: LCC) ("US Airways Group"), announced today its intention to make an offering, subject to market and other conditions, of Class A and Class B enhanced equipment trust certificates (the "Certificates") in the aggregate principal amount of approximately $388 million.
April 05: US Airways Reports March Traffic Results
[News Story] http://www.nasdaq.com/aspx/company-news-story.aspxstoryid=201104050900bizwire_usprx____bw5660&title=us-airways-reports-march-traffic-results Source: NASDAQ Stock Exchange
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