US Airways Group hits year-low 16th time in three months

STOCKS

US Airways Group (LCC.N), NYSE's 7th largest airlines company by market capitalisation, hit a 52-week low of US$4.53 during the day. In the last three months the stock has hit a new 52-week low sixteen times, pointing to a significant downtrend. The stock fell for a third day on Monday bringing its three-day fall to US$1.49 or 24.3%. The stock price crashed 87.0c (or 15.8%) to close at US$4.63. Compared with the NYSE U.S. 100 index, which fell 134.6 points (or 2.7%) on the day, this was a relative price change of -13.1%.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Downtrend

Spotting the top or distribution: the price was down on higher volume today. There have been four such events of Distribution in the last three weeks. Combined with the fact that the last price of US$4.63 was lower than today's mid-bounce price [average of price high and price low] of 5.1 is a bearish signal.

Support: the support price is hovering at the US$4.53 level. Volume traded at the support price zone was 1.9 time average during the single occasion when the support price was breached. In the last month the lowest price was US$4.53 on Oct 03.

Resistance: in the last one month the highest was at US$6.57 on Sep 27, the second advance halted at US$6.45 on Sep 26.

Falls to Rises: The stock fell in four out of last 5 trading days, for a 5-day fall of 24.2% to close at US$4.63. In the last three months the number of falls outnumbered rises 42:21 or 2.0:1.

Trailing month: in the last 21 trading sessions there has been a net decline of 11.3%; the stock has retreated 6 times and the biggest one day decline was 15.8% on Oct 03.

PRICE DYNAMICS

Volatility: the stock traded between an intraday high of US$5.59 and a twenty-month low of US$4.53, suggesting a trading opportunity between peaks and troughs. Today its volatility of 23.4% was 7.3 times its average volatility of 3.2%. A price fall on high volatility is a bearish signal. The average daily volatility of 4.6% places the stock in the 1st quartile in the market meaning it is highly volatile.

% Premium to low: the last price is at a premium of 2.2% to the 12-month low of US$4.53.

Volume weighted price (VWP): the price is at a discount of 17.6% to the 1-month volume weighted average price of US$5.621, which may appeal as a value proposition.

Beta: The Beta of this stock is 0.76. A Beta lower than 1 suggests this is a low risk, low return stock with volatility less than that of the market.

Standard Deviation (SD): SD is a statistical measure of deviation from the mean. The SD of 3.5% gives it a percentile rank of 82 meaning that 82% of stocks in the NYSE market are less volatile than this stock.

AGGREGATE VOLUMES, PRICES AND TURNOVER PERIOD

[Volume Index or VI in brackets; 1 is average]

New York: LCC.N 13,467,552 [VI of 1.9]; volume 92.33% of aggregate. Price: US$4.63.

BATS: LCC.BATS 1,118,392 [VI of 1.8]; volume 7.67% of aggregate. Price: US$4.64.

Aggregate volume: there were 14,585,944 shares worth US$67.5 million traded. The aggregate volume was 2.1 times average trading of 7,046,137 shares.

OPEN INTEREST TREND AND INTERPRETATION

Same day trend: open interest crashed 32.5% from 74,476 to 50,241. Combined with the price falling 15.8% this suggests the market is strengthening.

Trailing one week trend: open interest fell for a second week. Open interest crashed 32.2% from 74,099 a week ago while the stock crashed 24.2% from US$6.43 a week ago. Combined with the falling price this also suggests the market is strengthening.

Trailing one month trend: open interest crashed 28.4% from 70,164 a month ago while the stock crashed 12.5% from US$5.22 a month ago. Combined with the falling price this also suggests the market is strengthening.

Open interest as % of issued capital: 5,024,100 shares, representing 3.1% of the issued capital.

[ranked 264 out of 1565 stocks in descending order]

2011 Open interest: 20,703 contracts, representing 41.2% of total.

2012 to 2013 Open interest: 29,538 contracts, representing 58.8% of total.

Put:call ratio: open interest contracts on exchange traded options included 32,263 put contracts and 17,978 call contracts.

The put:call ratio was 1.8, up 63.5% for the day, up 66.0% in the past week and up 29.0% in the past month.

Top three traded call options [1 contract is 100 shares]

Exercise US$5.0; Expires Oct 22: 32.0c down 57.3%; volume 887; open interest 1084

Exercise US$5.0; Expires Mar 17: 99.0c down 38.5%; volume 741; open interest 107

Exercise US$6.0; Expires Oct 22: 11.0c down 56.0%; volume 588; open interest 4552

Top three traded put options [1 contract is 100 shares]

Exercise US$4.0; Expires Jan 21: 56.0c up 51.4%; volume 2438; open interest 2571

Exercise US$6.0; Expires Jan 21: US$1.80 up 63.6%; volume 1110; open interest 7618

Exercise US$5.0; Expires Oct 22: 67.0c up 157.7%; volume 1010; open interest 1624

Access comprehensive Stock Research on http://www.buysellsignals.com/19611498

PRICE PERFORMANCE RANK IN INDEX AND SECTORS

The stock is in 1 index and 2 sectors.

The following index and sectors fell setting the trend for its fall of 15.8%:

Airlines sector of 11 stocks traded today, which was down 351.4 points or 7.6% to 4,262.8,

The Total NYSE Market of 1865 stocks and 42 units traded today, which was down 178.8 points or 3.2% to 5,397.8,

NYSE U.S. 100 index which was down 134.6 points or 2.7% to 4,844.0

RELATIVE VALUATION INDICATORS [RVI] FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

The stock has a score of 5 out of 9 set by Joseph Piotroski [pass mark >=5 ]:

Positive net income; Positive operating cashflow; Good quality of earnings [operating cashflow exceeds net income]; Improvement in current ratio from 0.84% to 1.02%; Improvement in asset turnover [growth in revenue of 13.86% exceeded growth in assets of 4.9%].

Other Bullish Signals:

- Return on Assets of 6.4% versus sector average of 2.0% and market average of 2.3%.

- Return on Capital Employed of 16.7% versus sector average of 6.5% and market average of 12.3%.

Bearish Signals:

- Total Liabilities/ EBITDA of 7.2 is more than or equal to 5, this compares unfavourably with the Joseph Piotroski benchmark of 5.

- The average annual compound return on the share price in the last 5 years was -36.8%, underperforming the average annual compound return on the NYSE U.S. 100 index of -5.1%

RELATIVE VALUATION INDICATORS [RVI] TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Bullish Signals:

- The price is below the lower Bollinger band of US$4.646; the stock is also oversold according to the Williams % R indicator of -95.1.

Bearish Signals:

- The price crashed 24.2% in the last week and 12.5% in the last month.

- This has been exacerbated by firm volume of 1.2 times average for the week and 1.2 times average for the month.

- Compared with the NYSE U.S. 100 index which fell 4.5% for the week and 6.6% for the month, this represented a relative price decrease of 19.8% for the week and 5.9% for the month.

- In the NYSE market of 1,865 stocks and 42 units traded today, the stock has a 6-month relative strength of 19 indicating it is trailing 81.0% of the market.

- The price to 50-day EMAP ratio is 0.8, a bearish indicator. In the past 200 days this ratio has been under 0.8 11 times suggesting further downside. The 50-day EMAP has decreased to US$5.986. A decrease is another bearish indicator.

- The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator of 12-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) minus the 26-day EMA is negative suggesting a bearish signal. Both the 12-day EMA as well as the 26-day EMA are falling, another bearish signal.

- In the last three months the stock has hit a new 52-week low sixteen times, pointing to a significant downtrend.

- In the past 200 days this ratio has been under 0.56 just once suggesting a support level. The stock is trading below both its MAPs and the 50-day MAP of US$5.619 is lower than the 200-day MAP of US$8.256, a bearish indicator. The 200-day MAP has decreased to US$8.256. A decrease is another bearish indicator.

- The price to 200-day MAP ratio is 0.56, a bearish indicator.

Breakdown:

- The stock traded at a twenty-month low of US$4.53 today.

- In the last three months the stock has hit a new 52-week low sixteen times, pointing to a significant downtrend.

- The bears are maintaining control with price open, high, low and close being below yesterday's levels.

SHAREHOLDER RETURNS

Trailing one week: the stock fell four times (80% of the time) and rose once (20% of the time). The aggregate volume was 1.2 times average trading of 35,230,685 shares. The value of US$1,000 invested a week ago is US$755 [vs US$955 for the NYSE U.S. 100 index], for a capital loss of US$245(or loss of 24.5%).

Trailing one month: the stock fell eleven times (55% of the time) and rose nine times (45% of the time). The aggregate volume was 1.2 times average trading of 155,015,014 shares. The value of US$1,000 invested a month ago is US$875 [vs US$935 for the NYSE U.S. 100 index], for a capital loss of US$125(or loss of 12.5%).

Trailing one year: the value of US$1,000 invested one year ago is US$498 [vs US$968 for the NYSE U.S. 100 index], for a capital loss of US$502. The total return to shareholders for 1 year is -50.2%.

Trailing five years: the value of US$1,000 invested five years ago is US$100, for a capital loss of US$900.

The present value of US$1000 invested at a previous date is shown below:

FINANCIALS

Quarterly Report; year-on-year comparisons with previous corresponding period:

In the quarter to June 30, 2011 total revenue was up 10.5% to US$3.5 billion; net profit slumped 67.5% to US$91 million; EPS of 57.0c.

Annual Report for the year ended December 31, 2010 (year-on-year comparisons with previous corresponding period)-

Total liabilities to Total assets of 1.0.

Favourable Changes: total liabilities to EBITDA down 72.2% to 7.2. While this compares unfavourably with the Joseph Piotroski benchmark of <5, the trend is favourable; although the Total Liabilities to Operating Cash Flow ratio of 9.6 also compares unfavourably with the Joseph Piotroski benchmark of <4, it had improved by 92.7% from the previous year.; current ratio up 21.4% to 1.0; Sales to total assets up 8.6% to 1.5.

Major Common Size Ratios: fixed assets to total assets down from 49.6% to 48.5%; total current assets to total assets up from 31.3% to 37.2%; cash to total assets up from 17.4% to 23.8%; other non-current assets to total assets down from 19.1% to 14.2%; intangibles to total assets down from 6.7% to 6.1%; EBITDA to Sales up from 2.9% to 9.1%; EBITD to Sales up from 2.9% to 9.1%; EBIT to Sales up from 0.6% to 7.0%.

MARKET SHARE

US Airways Group vs Airlines sector [Airlines sector Total in Brackets]

Net Profit of US$502 million [15.3% of aggregate sector net profit of US$3.3 billion; up from 10.8% in the previous year.]

EBIT of US$831 million [10.5% of aggregate sector EBIT of US$7.9 billion; up from 4.9% in the previous year.]

FUNDAMENTALS

ISSUED CAPITAL

Based on 162,082,473 issued equity shares the market capitalisation is US$750.4 million. It is NYSE's 6th largest Airlines company by total revenue.

ACTIVITIES

US Airways Group, Inc. (US Airways Group) is a holding company whose primary business activity is the operation of a network air carrier through its wholly owned subsidiaries, US Airways, Inc. (US Airways), Piedmont Airlines, Inc. (Piedmont), PSA Airlines, Inc. (PSA), Material Services Company, Inc. (MSC) and Airways Assurance Limited, LLC (AAL). Passenger revenues account for substantiall portion of the Company's operating revenues.

TOP MANAGEMENT

The chief financial officer is Derek J. Kerr and the chairman and chief executive officer is W. Douglas Parker.

BUSINESS NEWS ROUND UP

The last 4 company announcements are:

August 26: US Airways Reduces East Coast Schedule in Anticipation of Hurricane Irene

[News Story] US Airways (NYSE: LCC) today announced that it is proactively canceling flights along the East Coast as a result of Hurricane Irene's projected path. Flight schedules at Washington Reagan, Philadelphia International Airport, New York's LaGuardia, John F. Kennedy and Newark airports and Boston Logan, as well as other cities in the Northeast and mid-Atlantic, will be reduced as the airline works to ensure the safety of its customers, employees and equipment.Customers are strongly encouraged to check flight status at usairways.com or by texting their flight number to TEXTUS before arriving at the airport.

July 18: Equity Research on US Airways Group Inc. and Delta Air Lines Inc. -- Major Airlines Dealing With Negative Flyer Sentiment

[News Story] NEW YORK, NY -- (MARKET WIRE) -- 07/18/11 -- www.shinesrooms.com has a handpicked team of market professionals with over 100 years of combined investing experience. Today they are providing members comprehensive research on the Major Airlines industry and are offering free analytical research on US Airways Group Inc.(NYSE: LCC) and Delta Air Lines Inc.(NYSE: DAL).

June 21: US Airways Announces $388 Million Aircraft Financing

[News Story] TEMPE, Ariz.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- US Airways, Inc. ("US Airways" or the "Company"), a wholly-owned subsidiary of US Airways Group, Inc. (NYSE: LCC) ("US Airways Group"), announced today its intention to make an offering, subject to market and other conditions, of Class A and Class B enhanced equipment trust certificates (the "Certificates") in the aggregate principal amount of approximately $388 million.

April 05: US Airways Reports March Traffic Results

[News Story] http://www.nasdaq.com/aspx/company-news-story.aspxstoryid=201104050900bizwire_usprx____bw5660&title=us-airways-reports-march-traffic-results Source: NASDAQ Stock Exchange

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