Cardiff Airport could benefit if Heathrow expansion was halted

THE last 10 years could be described as the lost decade for Cardiff Airport.

Passenger numbers have fallen from 1.498 million in 200S 0 to 1.398 million in 2010. In terms of share of the total UK air passenger market, Cardiff's share has fallen from 0.8% to 0.7%. Whilst that doeS s not look very significant by itself, it doesn't look good in comparison to Cardiff's nearest competitor, Bristol Airport.

Over the same 10 years, passenger numbers at Bristol have grown from 2.124 million to 5.723 million. Bristol's share of the total UK market has grown from 1.2% to 2.7%.

The rapid expansion at Bristol is associated with Bristol being able to attract low cost airlines, Easyjet and Ryanair, and the movement of passengers away from congested airports in the south-east of England. Cardiff was only able to attract one low cost airline, bmibaby, that initially added a large number of passengers at Cardiff but then failed to grow or compete in a way that other low cost airlines could.

Bmibaby has now given up completely on Cardiff and will withdraw from the airport at the end of the month. The airline has decided that although there is a profitable summer business at Cardiff Airport, the winter market is very weak. Even if the bmibaby business does change ownership, as has been suggested this week, it would take a large reduction in the cost base of the business for them to return to Cardiff.

Large numbers of passengers from the South Wales market are being lost over the border to airports in England. As well as the passengers being attracted by the low cost destinations served by Bristol Airport, passengers to other worldwide destinations have the choice of flying from Cardiff and changing aircraft in Amsterdam or getting in their cars for a two hour drive down the motorway to Heathrow and having frequent direct flights to their destination.

It was suggested this week that the option of travelling from Heathrow could become more attractive with the building of a rail spur into the airport from the west allowing a change of trains at Reading to give a direct service into the airport station that already exists underneath terminal 5. Before we get too excited about this, the suggested completion date was given of 2021 and that is before any planning or construction delays are factored in. It would perhaps be unwise at the moment to plan our long term aviation strategy in the UK around Heathrow.

Heathrow is full and it is the policy of the UK Government to not add any more capacity so in the near future the UK Government will have to decide on one of the following policy options for Heathrow.

Some would prefer the UK to maintain a dominant hub airport either by building a new hub airport in the Thames Estuary or by reversing Government policy and allowing Heathrow expansion and thus blighting the lives of thousands more Londoners with aircraft noise.

Alternatively the Government could encourage expansion at one of the other London airports or encourage passengers to travel more through their local airports such as Cardiff.

It is perhaps time to ask what sort of airport we want in Wales and whose responsibility is it to see that we get it? First of all there is an area where Cardiff Airport is performing well and will continue to perform well despite competition.

Passenger numbers on scheduled domestic services have risen from 92,669 to 263,410 over the 10 years and although they have fallen from their peak these routes will continue to be well served by the regional airlines because we are less inclined to travel away from our local airport to use domestic services. Secondly, do we need another low cost airline based at Cardiff? It is perhaps time to admit that Bristol now dominates the low cost market and accept that whilst there are parts of the Cardiff Airport catchment area that have prosperous passengers that can sustain a year round business, there are not enough of them because there are also areas of high unemployment and benefit dependency within the catchment area.

Whether we get a new low cost airline base or not should be entirely down to private sector negotiations between the airport and airlines. There can no argument for public sector support to help us all to go on holiday overseas once a year.

That does not mean that the Welsh Government should not be active in selling Wales and attracting airlines, low cost, regional or big network carriers to operate strategic routes that link with important trading partners or bring in visitors to Wales. Such routes, like the Zurich route that receives support from the Welsh Government, will not be successful overnight, but will take a sustained effort together with airline partners over several years to achieve.

There is a need to view air transport as an integrated part of building an inbound tourist sector and as part of an economic development policy for the area surrounding the airport that includes a large development area adjacent to the airport, that could be the catalyst for an airport railway station of our own, and the business park serving the aerospace sector at St Athan.

This area around the airport could potentially benefit if the Welsh Government decides to follow the English policy of establishing Enterprise Zones. So the future for Cardiff Airport should be as a successful regional airport contributing to local economic development which continues to provide good connectivity with domestic destinations, provides routes for local passengers to go on holiday, where there is market demand, but that also works closely in partnership with the Welsh Government to develop strategic connections and build inbound tourism.

¦ Martin Evans is director of Aviation Analysis.