Airport Terminal Projects Don't Guarantee Growth

May 13, 2013
For years, Kansas City International Airport has been losing passengers and flights from its three 1970s-era terminals. A single new terminal might help stop the hemorrhaging, say supporters of an airport transformation plan that has sparked a raging debate.

May 12--For years, Kansas City International Airport has been losing passengers and flights from its three 1970s-era terminals.

A single new terminal might help stop the hemorrhaging, say supporters of an airport transformation plan that has sparked a raging debate.

And while every airport is different, they point to recent terminal construction projects at Indianapolis, Sacramento and Raleigh-Durham, N.C. as models for Kansas City to emulate.

So have those new terminals captured more passengers and flights to domestic and international destinations since they opened? Not really.

All three have seen declines or no growth in passenger traffic and nonstop destinations, just as Kansas City has experienced.

Building a new airport terminal doesn't guarantee that kind of success, says Steven Malanga, senior fellow with the Manhattan Institute, a market-oriented public policy think tank. Malanga has written about airport expansions that didn't live up to their promise, such as in Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. While he hasn't researched Kansas City's proposal, he cautioned against anticipating an aviation bonanza.

"People are right to be suspicious because there is a tendency within the aviation bureaucracy to want to update by building, rather than reconstructing," Malanga said. "One thing you can be sure of in the current economic environment, if you've seen your own air traffic shrink, it's unlikely a new terminal will drive economic growth."

Mike Boyd, a Denver-based aviation specialist who is not involved with KCI's plans but is familiar with the airport, agreed that a new terminal doesn't assure new business.

"No, it won't bring in new airlines," he said. "They've all merged or gone out of business."

But he is emphatic that KCI must change or continue to lose ground to its competitors.

"The design is absolutely perfect for the 1970s," he said of the three-terminal configuration. "What the aviation department is doing is planning for the future. If you don't, you'll get stuck with an inefficient layout that doesn't work anymore."

Even with a 2004 renovation, KCI has seen traffic drop from about 11.2 million passengers in 2007 to 9.7 million in 2012. KCI's nonstop destinations dropped from 67 to 45 in that same period. It has also seen weekly departures plummet nearly 25 percent since 2007.

Mark Perryman, president of Landrum & Brown, the aviation consultants working on the new KCI terminal plan, says the airline industry has been in a slump during the recession, sending passenger numbers and flights down throughout the country, not just at KCI. But he thinks Kansas City's losses are also due in part to its antiquated terminals.

"You're kind of getting a double whammy," he said. "Now, Indianapolis and Raleigh and Sacramento, they're sitting in a prime position when the industry rebounds, because they have facilities that are ready to go and can be flexible and can bring on flights and add flights easily, versus in Kansas City you can't."

Yes, KCI has added certain flights, but even those additions show the airport's challenges, Perryman said.

He cites the example of Alaska Airlines, which wanted to provide a direct flight to Seattle. KCI offered to give Alaska Airlines three gates in Terminal A, but Alaska wanted only one gate. So Alaska worked out a deal to sublet a Delta gate in Terminal B for one daily flight.

New terminals such as those at Raleigh, Sacramento, and Indianapolis have "common use" gate technology, Perryman said, where airlines can swap in and out by changing the marquee digitally. KCI's construction and technological capability don't allow that.

"The current terminal is not easy to operate in and out of, from an airline perspective, especially as it's growing," he said.

KCI's current plan estimates a new terminal, parking garage and other infrastructure at $1.2 billion.

Similar projects in recent years include:

-- Raleigh Durham. The airport completed a $571 million terminal in 2011 to positive reviews and is renovating another for $68 million. Its passenger traffic dropped from about 10 million in 2007 to 9.1 million in 2010, rebounding slightly to 9.2 million in 2012. It has 39 nonstop destinations and 179 daily departures, about the same as before the terminal completion.

The airport hopes more growth will come, said spokeswoman Mindy Hamlin.

-- Sacramento. The airport completed its $1 billion terminal and people-mover project in October 2011, replacing a 1967 terminal. Its passenger traffic was about 8.9 million last year, compared to more than 10 million in 2007, before construction began. It had 140 daily nonstop flights to 28 cities in October 2011, versus 136 daily nonstops to 28 cities now.

Spokeswoman Laurie Slothower attributed the passenger decline to the recession. Despite the drop, she said, the airport is highly regarded and is "well positioned to accommodate forecast growth for decades."

Some airlines have complained that it's more expensive to do business there, but Slothower said rates had been very low for many years.

-- Indianapolis. The $1.1 billion terminal project opened in November 2008. Passenger traffic totaled about 7.2 million in 2012 versus about 8 million in 2008. The airport averaged 189 daily departures to 43 nonstop destinations in 2008, versus 135 departures to 32 destinations now.

Spokesman Carlo Bertolini also attributed the drop to the economic downturn and industry consolidations, but said the new terminal has many advantages, particularly with energy efficiency, spacious security screening areas and more comfortable concourses.

Indianapolis is one new airport terminal that Jim Heeter, president of the Greater Kansas City Chamber of Commerce, says the city should look to as a model for convenience and growth.

"It's very comparable to what I think could be accomplished in Kansas City," said Heeter, who has flown in and out of the new facility several times. "Over the long term it presents more opportunities for airlines to locate there, more direct flights."

But 6th District Councilman Scott Taylor, who has traveled frequently in his job as a lawyer, remains unconvinced. He likes KCI the way it is and isn't sure a new terminal will draw more business.

"I have been to Indianapolis. It is a shiny new airport, but I don't remember it being that busy," he said.

"There are new airports that are not very busy, and the community has spent a lot of time and effort to establish it without increased activity by the airlines," Taylor said.

One potential area of growth for KCI: International travel.

A new terminal would provide space that KCI currently lacks for international planes and customs service, especially to Latin America and the Caribbean, Perryman said.

International service isn't guaranteed, however. Raleigh, Sacramento and Indianapolis also serve only a few cities outside the U.S. Representatives of those airports say their new facilities are positioned for more international service as the economy improves.

And therein lies the rub. Is the airline industry coming out of its slump and prepped for a rebound, as Perryman predicts? Do you take a risk and build a new terminal on that promise? Or wait 10 or 20 more years, and possibly lose out to other airports that built during the recession?

"Airlines are paring back flights and focusing on full flights," Malanga said. "The newer airports being built that are considered successful or necessary, like Dallas and Denver, are being built in response to growth throughout the area, which demands they get bigger."

The Kansas City area isn't seeing huge growth, so Malanga advises caution.

But Malanga acknowledges that flights and traffic aren't the only reasons to build. If KCI is truly outdated in terms of security, operations and airline needs, then a new terminal might make the most sense.

"It is a balancing act," he said.

KCI vs. new terminals in other cities

Here is how Kansas City International Airport compares with three medium-sized airports that have new terminals.

Weekly Aircraft Departures

April 2007 April 2013 Percent decrease

KCI 1,582 1,196 24.4

Sacramento 1,154 872 24.4

Indianapolis 1,233 968 21.5

Raleigh-Durham 1,491+ 1,204 19.2

Source: Innovata, an aviation database

To reach Lynn Horsley, call 816-226-2058 or send email to [email protected].

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