Buckle Up – It Has Only Just Begun

In normal times, this column usually deals with issues regarding airport security.  These are not normal times, nor are the almost infinite number of variables and interdependencies affecting airport security, nor does anyone have a clue about how to define the future “new normal” or when it might sneak up on us all.  Many have tried; most have failed miserably, and I suspect I am about to do the same.

Of the primary causative events, most will agree the CV-19 virus and the resulting economic crises (plural) lead the parade.  We will stipulate in this discussion  that airports will not resolve these issues; but they will be forced to react as each little demon does its thing to change or interfere with the still-developing process.

First, it’s hard to even define ‘airport security’ anymore.  The term has always enjoyed a shaky co-existence with ‘safety,’ and the security arena has always been bifurcated between the physical security of the airport campus – access control, CCTV surveillance, perimeter technology, etc. – and the roles of FAA and then TSA in screening of passengers, baggage and cargo.  Certainly there are elements of  safety to each of those functions, but they are not the primary objective of security.  Now, I’ll add one more element to our chat:  facilitation, which I’ll define here as moving people quickly and efficiently though this new environment.

A few facts about that environment:

·       Decline in airport 2020 revenues due to CV-19  (ACI Figures)

o   No.Amer. -60.4%; Europe –64.5%, Asia-Pacific -55.1%, Mid-East -59.6%

·        Aircraft worldwide Idle – 29%, mostly un-maintained

·        Projections to reach 2019 volume range from 2024 to 2029, depending on one’s sources, and how one defines 2019 volume – passengers, flights, cargo, dollars, etc.

·        If Congress does not provide relief funding  by October 1^st deadline:

o   American A/L will lay off 1,900 pilots; drop 40% of remaining 133,000 employees

o   Delta A/L: lay off 1,941 pilots (was 2,550 before voluntary furloughs)

o   United A/L: lay off 2,850 pilots; and 16,370 employees to fly 40% of 2019 schedule

So what does that have to do with airport security, I heard someone ask?  Bear with me, and follow the money.  According to A4A, US carriers collectively only flew 5% loads at  70-79% full on average; 6% flew 60-69% full; 12% flew 50-59% full.  The 70% mark is significant because social distancing typically means using only two thirds of seats, or 67%.  TSA data says in mid-May it was screening only 9% of the same period last year; it was below 3% earlier in the year.

Now look at the mirror image of those figures – which are themselves only a very tiny representative sample:  if people are not flying, they are not parking their cars – the second largest source of airport revenue.  They are not renting cars, eating burgers and beer, buying donuts, books and ugly t-shirts - translated, virtually no concession revenues... much like the lack of rates, charges and aeronautical services from the absent aircraft.

And now (finally) to my original point: infinite variables affecting security.  Security (and safety) cost big money, which airports no longer have much of.  I recognize this discussion  touches on perhaps 0.004% of the possible scenarios, and each such change has the potential of changing many dozens of others....  which in turn .....  you get the picture.

o   Does TSA’s 9% of last year’s volume being screened mean a concurrent reduction in TSA screeners, supervisors, administrative staff is overdue.

o   How about less equipment, less lanes, less space – smaller terminals, less infrastructure.

o   Will new technology replace screening staff entirely and/or create new space and staff requirements for isolation and management of pandemic-type situations, especially for international travel where there is no consistency of controls. 

o   Does 6-foot social distancing extend the screening and wait-room queues into the concourse exponentially, essentially requiring more space for less people.

o   How does that affect interior design for existing terminals, affecting both interior and exterior access controls and surveillance.

o   What about masks – recent studies show it baffles facial recognition.

o   What’s the realistic flexible plan for airport design, over how many years, assuming as some architects and planners have suggested, that “near normal” may never exceed 70% of 2019 figures, due in large part to major shift in personal travel patterns and a growing international comfort with on-line business and conferences worldwide.

Clearly, as predicted in the first paragraph, I’ve only served to ask questions, not answer them.  But that was my other promise, to point out that we are in this for the long haul, and there are very few stable markers on the path.