Talks of Modesto-to-LA air service are taking flight

June 14--It looks as though the regional air service between Modesto and San Francisco has a dim future, and a move is under way to develop Modesto-Los Angeles flights.

The next step is forming a regional task force of business and civic leaders to build support for the flights between Modesto and Los Angeles.

"SkyWest Airlines has indicated they are considering transferring us to a (Modesto-Los Angeles route) with two flights a day," said Jerome Thiele, Modesto Airport manager. "If we want three flights a day, they will want risk-sharing by businesses and industry. ... They would altogether drop flights from Modesto to San Francisco."

The talks between airport officials and the regional carrier, SkyWest, are preliminary and there's no information on the timeframe for the two proposed Los Angeles flights. The airline has announced it will reduce its flights to San Francisco from four to three in the fall, owing to a steady decline in passengers on the route.

Thiele said he expects later this year SkyWest will give serious consideration to Modesto-Los Angeles service.

Modesto needs to stop a five-year decline in passenger boardings or some fear that airlines will no longer look at the airport.

About 19,000 passengers boarded planes in Modesto in each of the past two years, fewer than the number in 2004, when there were 21,574.

The airport had 38,127 boardings in 2006, the year the previous United Express service to Los Angeles started, and the number peaked at 51,587 in 2007. Boardings fell to 38,825 in 2008, the year Los Angeles service was lost, and then steadily declined to below 20,000 a year.

A major problem, Thiele said, is the unreliable service between Modesto and San Francisco, which has the second-most congested airport in the nation. San Francisco-bound flights from the East Coast and other regions have priority, prompting federal air traffic coordinators to ask carriers to cut flights.

As a result, Modesto flights are often delayed for one to three hours, or canceled, Thiele said.

The delays and missed connections for Modesto passengers lead to further declines in ticket sales. San Francisco's plan to work on runway improvements over the next few years is expected to make the congestion worse.

Thiele said there was interest in Modesto-Los Angeles flights from business leaders who attended meetings last week. A regional air service committee could be formed after the July Fourth holiday, made up of people from Stanislaus and nearby counties.

SkyWest hasn't said what level of community support it would want to add a third flight. Typically, airlines working with smaller markets may ask for landing fee waivers, marketing help or a fund to guarantee profits, Thiele said.

"I have spoken to some business people and they think that flight service from Modesto to LA is more important than flight service to San Francisco," said Cecil Russell, chief executive officer of the Modesto Chamber of Commerce. "No one wants to lose the San Francisco service," but the flight delays are a serious issue.

In 2006, Modesto helped convince SkyWest to start the previous Los Angeles service by offering up to $550,000 in payments from a federal transportation grant if the route wasn't profitable. The flights were often full, but SkyWest dropped the service in 2008, saying that Modesto's price-sensitive market made the route less than profitable.

The city has no such funds this time. Russell suggested the airport could start with two daily flights to Los Angeles and the business community could help promote the service so that SkyWest adds a third one.

About 70 percent of Modesto passengers fly for business purposes and 30 percent for leisure.

Bee staff writer Ken Carlson can be reached at [email protected] or (209) 578-2321.

Copyright 2012 - The Modesto Bee, Calif.