American Airlines relaunched its DFW International Airport to Madrid flight last week, but with an ulterior motive. Besides getting passengers to continental Europe, it needed to use the belly of the Boeing 787 Dreamliner to deliver cargo.
So the Fort Worth-based carrier relaunched the flight, knowing it wouldn’t be full of passengers, said American Airlines vice president of network and schedule planning Brian Znotins.
“We anticipate that it will be a prolonged decline in demand,” he said.
As travel starts to recover slowly from the COVID-19-induced downturn in the U.S., American is also trying to rebuild its entire flight network to reflect the new realities.
“We anticipate that demand for long-haul travel will be the most impacted," Znotins said. “The world has changed. A lot of demand across the Atlantic and the Pacific isn’t there."
Znotins and his network team have been among the busiest at American Airlines during the crisis, quickly drawing down flight schedules to match the 95% drop in passenger traffic and then trying to rebuild it with forecasts about how quickly customers come back.
“My crystal ball is pretty murky,” Znotins said. “It’s been pretty bad thus far through the crisis. There are many variables.”
A survey released this week by market research firm 1Q says only 16% of respondents felt safe traveling on an airplane right now. Travel advocacy group AAA said Wednesday it will not issue any travel projections for Memorial Day weekend.
“With social distancing guidelines still in practice for many states, this holiday weekend’s travel volume is likely to set a record low,” AAA Texas spokesman Daniel Armbruster said in a statement.
The reluctance to get on a jet is concerning to airlines, which are trying to convince travelers it’s safe to fly again with mandatory face masks and increased cleaning. Delta said Thursday that it would retire its Boeing 777 fleet of 18 planes used in long-haul flying because of the drop in international demand.
In the years before the COVID-19 pandemic, American’s DFW hub benefited from new flights to destinations internationally and domestically. Dozens of those flights have disappeared, and it’s unclear when many will come back.
The carrier had plans for a flight from DFW to Tel Aviv, Israel, and was going to increase frequency to Rome. The Tel Aviv flight is being delayed until 2021.
Znotins said bringing back routes is sometimes tricky. Many countries still have travel restrictions. Business travel is also down, and many attractions, such as Disney World, are not open.
Already, the few passengers getting on airplanes and booking flights are making changes in how they will travel. For example, those who planned European vacations are opting for destinations closer to home in the Caribbean. Those who planned a Caribbean vacation might be staying in the U.S. for a few days on the Gulf Coast or at a mountain getaway where social distancing is easier.
Still, any demand for leisure travel is still pretty weak, he said.
“A lot of travel is for medical professionals, a death in the family or visiting sick relatives,” he said. “There are not as many people wanting to go on vacation.”
One of the biggest casualties will likely be routes to niche destinations. Znotins said a flight such as the one from Philadelphia to Dubrovnik, Croatia, saw a huge increase in traffic in recent years, partially because it was a popular filming location for the HBO series Game of Thrones.
Airlines ramped up flights to those types of destinations partially because traditional launching point airports in Europe and Asia were full. Until traffic recovers, international travelers will likely have to make a stop in London, Madrid, Rome or Milan before continuing on to Dubrovnik or Tel Aviv.
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