As an aircraft maintainer, one’s attention is generally focused on the work at hand or the work planned for the next day or week ahead. As a young A&P, I gave little, perhaps no thought to aircraft maintenance in other parts of the state, country or world. I was busy working and learning the trade, staying on task and happy being immersed in aviation in my little corner of the world. On occasion, an aircraft registered in nearby Canada would pass through, or I’d read of aircraft from other countries, but never gave much thought to aviation on an international scale.
Years later as an airline mechanic, I became exposed to aircraft flying and being maintained around the world. Certain parts and components would be sent to specialized repair facilities for maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) for a variety of reasons. And, these specialized companies were not always in my home country.
As time flew by, my role would change and I became exposed to more of the business aspects of maintenance. It soon became apparent that just like flying, maintenance in our industry was also a very global activity. If aircraft were flying to international locations, they would need some level of maintenance performed at these destinations. Just as foreign registered aircraft flying into the United States would require some level of maintenance while being prepared for their flight back to their home country.
Eventually, my airline career would take me to countless other airline maintenance facilities, manufacturers and specialized component, engine and airframe repair facilities in the U.S. and around the world. While traveling, I’d always try to carve out some time to visit a small general aviation airport as well in an effort to learn about small aircraft maintenance.
In my role as chief editor of this publication, I continued to visit and report on maintenance activity from aviation events and maintenance facilities around the world. For an aviation geek, the ability to not only observe, but to participate in the similarities and differences of aircraft maintenance has been a priceless experience — and a lot of fun. I could go on about my career in aircraft maintenance but this article is not about me.
The Global Maintenance Build-Up
The increasing air-travel forecast for the next couple decades has been widely publicized — it’s huge. Last year, I wrote a series of articles on maintenance in other parts of the world, where I provided inputs from a variety of operators and maintainers. As the forecast for new aircraft deliveries and increase in air-travel from emerging areas of the world continues at a rapid pace, so will global aircraft maintenance activity in these same regions. It’s an easy correlation.
But first, let’s take a look at a few industry forecasts, in particular, the demand for new aircraft.
The Airbus Global Market Forecast 2019-2038 states a demand for more than 39,000 passenger and freight aircraft over the next 20 years. Thirty six percent are for aircraft replacement and 64 percent will be for growth. Asia-Pacific will account for 42 percent of the deliveries, and airlines in North America and Europe together will account for 36 percent
The Boeing 20 Year Commercial Market Outlook forecasts similar results with a demand for a total of 44,040 aircraft.
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General Aviation Manufacturers Association (GAMA) in their 2019 Annual Report states 2,658 general aviation aircraft were delivered and 819 rotorcraft were delivered. (*Leonardo Helicopters fourth quarter data is not available at the time of publication. Leonardo Helicopters will release year-end results in March.) Over half of the deliveries were in North America and the remaining around the world. The world fleet size of general and business aviation aircraft and rotorcraft is said to be more than 446,000 with 211,000 based in the United States, 136,000 based in Europe and the remaining elsewhere around the world.
Honeywell Aerospace produces a 10-year forecast released timely with the annual National Business Aviation Association’s (NBAA) Business Aviation Convention and Exposition. The October 2019 report stated the global demand to be 7,600 new business jet deliveries over the next 10 years.
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Honeywell Aerospace recently released its 22nd annual Turbine-Powered Civil Helicopter Purchase Outlook, where they forecast 4,100 new civilian-use helicopters will be delivered from 2020 to 2024. Note: The Honeywell report states the 2020 outlook presents a snapshot of the helicopter business at a given point in time and reflects the current business and political environment. This year’s data comes from a survey of more than 1,000 chief pilots and flight department managers. The results are survey respondents who said they would either replace or expand their fleet with a new helicopter over the next five years.
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Global MRO Activity
By now, you may be asking yourself what this all has to do with maintenance. The answer is simple; more aircraft require more maintenance, regardless of type and where they are in the world.
North America and Western Europe have been known for having mature aviation systems beginning a century ago. And in-turn, these two regions have mature and robust MRO activity. However, based on air travel demands over the past few decades, some of the largest MRO facilities have developed outside of these two regions. Based on global aircraft demand, you can predict additional expansion of MRO activity in other parts of the world.
For current information on MRO activity, I turned to the Aeronautical Repair Station Association (ARSA).
Editor’s note: The following MRO information for this article came from Oliver Wyman’s Global Fleet & MRO Market Forecast 2019–2029 prepared for and with the permission of ARSA. For more information on the report, its findings and the preparation of the 2020-2030 report, contact ARSA.
The following are key points from the above mentioned forecast I found applicable to this discussion.
- With the expansion of business in the commercial aviation industry, the MRO market that supports it is also expected to grow.
- The annual average growth rate for the MRO market will be 3.5 percent over the next decade.
- Total MRO spend is expected to rise to $116 billion by 2029.
- Growth in aviation will be more concentrated in Asia and the developing world, particularly China and India.
- By 2035, the Civil Aviation Administration of China projects the number of airports in the nation will almost double.
- By the end of the decade, China will become the biggest global market for air travel and Asia will be the new center of global aviation activity.
- Over the next decade, MRO growth rates are forecast to be highest in China, with a 9.7 percent growth rate, and India with a 7.1 percent growth rate.
- Contrary to popular perceptions about the industry, most aviation maintenance work is done “off the aircraft” by highly specialized facilities working on engines and components. Close to 85 percent are small-to-medium sized businesses employing 50 or fewer people.
- Asia as a whole is the driver of worldwide fleet growth and, in-turn, global MRO growth.
The above mentioned points are only a few relating to global maintenance activity. Both the Airbus and Boeing market forecast’s contain aircraft services data, which includes maintenance. These can be accessed by visiting their websites. The Oliver Wyman report for ARSA contains very detailed MRO data. I encourage anyone interested in greater detail to go directly to the sources.
