Commercial Aircraft Market Forecast
Bombardier Aerospace’s 20-year view of the 20- to 149-seat commercial aircraft market calls for 12,800 deliveries from 2012 to 2031, generating over $630 billion US in sales revenue. This represents a decrease of 300 units (2.3 per cent) compared to last year’s forecast, mainly due to a lower GDP forecast and a sharp increase in the forecasted oil price.
Bombardier’s forecasted industry deliveries by segment are:
- 20 to 59 seats: 300 aircraft deliveries
- 60 to 99 seats: 5,600 aircraft deliveries
- 100 to 149 seats: 6,900 aircraft deliveries
In the 60- to 99-seat commercial aircraft market, Bombardier expects that scope clauses in North American and European operations will continue to ease to meet growing demand in this market segment, valued at more than $180 billion US over the 20-year forecast period. In the 100- to 149-seat segment, a shift in focus towards aircraft that are optimized for their intended segments is expected to be a catalyst for demand as airlines move away from derivatives of larger aircraft that were originally designed for larger capacity. Deliveries from 2012 to 2031 in the 100- to 149-seat segment are forecast to be worth more than $449 billion US.
The global demand for air travel and new aircraft continues to shift towards emerging markets. In 2011, Bombardier increased the size of its commercial aircraft sales team, placing a strong emphasis on these regions to meet this demand. However, as with the business aircraft industry, North America is expected to lead the way in aircraft deliveries over the forecast period, taking in an expected 4,730 new aircraft, followed by China, with 2,220 aircraft, and Europe, including Russia and the CIS, with 2,240 aircraft.
The Bombardier Commercial Aircraft Market Forecast predicts that more than half of the current commercial aircraft fleet will be replaced in the next 20 years – a slightly greater percentage than expected last year. Technical obsolescence, cost inefficiencies and age are driving the increasing pace of older aircraft retirements, which will in turn have a positive impact on demand for new aircraft. In addition, although high oil prices will continue to challenge airlines’ profitability, the arrival of new, technologically advanced aircraft that deliver direct operating cost reductions will accelerate the retirement of older, less fuel-efficient aircraft.
With its optimized Q400 NextGen, CRJ NextGen and CSeries commercial aircraft, Bombardier is extremely well positioned to meet the demand for sustainable transportation solutions that marry advanced technology, operational efficiency and passenger appeal.
Bombardier is the world’s only manufacturer of both planes and trains. Looking far ahead while delivering today, Bombardier is evolving mobility worldwide by answering the call for more efficient, sustainable and enjoyable transportation everywhere. Our vehicles, services and, most of all, our employees are what make us a global leader in transportation.
Bombardier is headquartered in Montréal, Canada. Our shares are traded on the Toronto Stock Exchange (BBD) and we are listed on the Dow Jones Sustainability World and North America indexes. In the fiscal year ended December 31, 2011, we posted revenues of $18.3 billion USD. News and information are available at bombardier.com or follow us on Twitter @Bombardier.
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