Belfast, Northern Ireland, May 07, 2008
• 10-year baseline Business Aircraft Market Forecast predicts 13,200 deliveries from 2008 to 2017, representing market-wide revenues of $300 billion US
• 20-year Commercial Aircraft Market Forecast from 2008 to 2027 calls for 12,900 new deliveries in 20- to 149-seat market, worth $528 billion US
Today, Bombardier Aerospace released its annual aircraft market forecasts for the business and commercial aircraft markets.
“As we transition to a more international customer base that features less emphasis on the U.S., as well as a structural shift towards larger and more cost-effective aircraft, Bombardier’s key product families – business jets and regional aircraft – are expected to continue to generate strong interest across all markets,” said Mairead Lavery, Vice-President, Strategy and Business Development, Bombardier Aerospace. “With its comprehensive portfolio of business and commercial aircraft that encompass state-of-the-art technologies and innovative design solutions, and its focus on customer services, Bombardier is well positioned for the future.”
Business Aircraft Market Forecast
In the 10-year period from 2008 to 2017, Bombardier’s Business Aircraft Market Forecast predicts that business aircraft manufacturers will deliver a total of 1,320 business jets annually in all segments it competes (from light to corporate airliner segments), a substantial increase from the industry average of over 620 business jet deliveries annually during the 1998 to 2007 period.
The total forecasted 13,200 deliveries over the 10-year period represent revenues of approximately $300 billion US* for the industry.
Despite strong concerns over a possible downturn in the U.S. and world economies that could create a decrease in overall orders over the next two years, Bombardier believes industry deliveries should keep increasing until 2017. In addition, based on the important surge in orders over the last few years and manufacturers’ solid backlogs, the business aircraft industry is expected to maintain its positive trend in deliveries. The sustained vigor of the European jet market has propelled Bombardier to revise its forecast upward from 2007 levels. Bombardier’s 10-year industry delivery forecast increased from 9,950 in 2007 to 13,200 deliveries in 2008.
Bombardier’s forecast also indicates that primary market drivers continue to be mostly positive. These include manufacturers’ current average order backlog that is equivalent to an estimated 29 months of production; a healthy market for pre-owned aircraft; the number of new aircraft programs scheduled to enter service over the next two years; and stable fractional ownership demand. With growing demand for business jets within its international base of customers – representing 67 per cent of orders for 2007 – Bombardier should be well positioned to weather a possible recession in the U.S.
Commercial Aircraft Market Forecast
According to Bombardier’s Commercial Aircraft Market Forecast, demand for 20- to 149-seat commercial aircraft is expected to reach approximately 12,900 new aircraft in the 20-year period from 2008 to 2027, an increase in demand from last year’s forecast. Forecasted demand is valued at approximately $528 billion US*.
The trend towards larger aircraft, coupled with sustained higher fuel prices will reinforce operators’ requirement for modern aircraft with low operating costs.
The forecast reflects the shift in demand to larger commercial aircraft:
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