Honeywell Business Aviation Outlook Forecasts Strong Growth Potential in Middle East

The model is signaling a rather robust recovery starting in 2012 with the next cyclic peak likely to be higher than in 2008, although fairly late in the forecast period.


Medium and Medium-Large: Combined, new aircraft deliveries in these segments have been significantly reduced in the near-term. 2008 deliveries exceeded 300 in this class; however, deliveries for the next two to three years will be only 50 to 60 percent of those levels. New model introductions will begin to rebuild delivery rates and the 300-per-year level should be reached again late in the forecast period. Deliveries for the forecast period should total about 2,400 aircraft. Among the newer and emerging aircraft in these segments are the Embraer Legacy 450 and 500, Learjet 85, Gulfstream G250, Hawker 900XP, Hawker 850XP and Hawker 4000. Established platforms include the Citation Sovereign, Bombardier Challenger 300, Citation X, Gulfstream G150, G200, Falcon 50EX and Learjet 60.

Light and Light-Medium: Honeywell Aerospace anticipates deliveries of roughly 2,400 jets in these segments between 2009 and 2019. As in the large class, this sector has been affected adversely by the suspension or delay of several new projects, including the Grob SPn and the Hawker 450, among others. As previously noted, the Light and Light-Medium segments continue to be one of the larger areas of operator new jet purchase plans in the 2009 survey. Aircraft in these segments include the Hawker 400XP, Hawker 750, Citation Bravo, Citation Encore+, CJ3 (525B), CJ4(525C), Citation XLS, Embraer Phenom 300, Lear 40 and Lear 45/45XR.

Very Light: Deliveries of business jets in this segment will continue to build momentum off a base of over 200 units in 2008. Deliveries are forecast to increase in 2009 but stabilize somewhat for two to three years before resuming growth later in the forecast period, averaging a bit under 300 aircraft per year for the latter portion of the forecast period. The relatively solid projected demand reflects the introduction and rapid production ramp-up of new Very Light jets, such as the Embraer Phenom 100 and Cessna Citation Mustang, both of which continue to enjoy better than average order backlogs. Deliveries in the 2009 to 2019 period are expected to exceed 2,800 planes. Other production and announced aircraft in this segment include the Cessna CJ1+ and CJ2+, Beechcraft Premier I and Sino-Swearingen SJ30-2.

Personal Jets: The 2009 Business Aviation Outlook provides an updated look at the emerging Personal Jet segment. GAMA and the FAA define General Aviation as everything except the airlines and military. This portion of industry demand has been centered on the emergence of Very Light aircraft such as the Eclipse 500, Adam 700, Diamond Jet, Cirrus, Piper Jet and others not normally covered by the Business Aviation Outlook.

As has been widely reported, several of these programs have suffered financial and execution issues delaying or in several cases eliminating the program.

The current outlook is reduced significantly and is heavily influenced by close monitoring of ongoing OEM developments. Current potential is limited by supply as much as demand due to the delays and disruption of several high profile projects.

With this in mind, deliveries over the next 10-year period will likely be constrained to somewhere between 1,000 and 1,500 Very Light personal jets. When combined with new-generation low-cost aircraft carried in the Very Light segment of the Business Aviation Outlook, the total deliveries range from 3,000 to 3,500 aircraft from 2009 to 2019, well below the range predicted by earlier Honeywell survey research. Should plans to restart programs currently on hold or cancelled come to fruition, there could be a modest improvement in the outlook once global economic growth is on firmer footing.

Business Liners: The current Business Aviation Outlook does not explicitly include aircraft in the Business Liner class (typically well over 100,000 pounds takeoff weight and based on transport airframes). However, purchase expectations are recorded for these models in the survey. Forecast deliveries of aircraft in this class total around 240 through 2019 and should average roughly 20 aircraft per year in the forecast period. Aircraft represented in this segment include the Boeing BBJ series, the Airbus Elite A318 and Airbus Corporate Jetliner as well as the Lineage 1000 from Embraer, plus corporate versions of twin aisle aircraft and potential corporate versions of new regional jets. This segment comprises an additional $17 billion of business aircraft sales.

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