Dec. 03--Amazon's sci-fi-like proposal to use aerial drones to deliver packages to your doorstep in half an hour has technological and regulatory hoops to fly through before it becomes reality, but the online retail giant's weight could pressure the Federal Aviation Administration to develop rules for private drones sooner, experts said.
Amazon's Prime Air is aiming to deliver packages using small-scale octocopters -- eight-rotored helicopters -- within five years, CEO Jeff Bezos said yesterday.
But MIT professor Missy Cummings, a drone expert, said Amazon faces major challenges.
"It's a systems engineering challenge, how to get all the parts working," Cummings said. She and others note that ordering and warehousing functions would have to be made to work with automated drones, which would have to be able to find doorsteps with pinpoint accuracy, and avoid hitting anything en route.
Dan Kara, chief research officer at Myria RAS, said, "There are other massive hurdles that can't be addressed in a lot of technologies I see, like the weather." Sensor-guided minicopters would be susceptible to wind, rain and other conditions.
Prime Air deliveries would be confined to a 10-mile radius from Amazon's warehouses. The closest warehouse to Boston right now is more than 30 miles away, in Nashua, N.H. Packages would have to be less than 5 pounds, but Bezos said 86 percent of its orders are under that weight.
The FAA detailed its plans to develop private unmanned aircraft regulations last month, but the agency is already on track to miss its 2015 deadline, Cummings said.
"The FAA is moving at a snail's pace," she said. But she added, "Because Amazon is such an economic powerhouse, now maybe we'll see some movement."
Sen. Edward J. Markey, who filed drone legislation last month, said in a statement, "Before drones start delivering packages, we need the FAA to deliver privacy protections for the American public." The FAA did not respond to a request for comment.
The Association for Unmanned Vehicle Systems International has projected a commercial drone industry could add 100,000 jobs and $82 billion to the economy in its first decade.
But Kara said he views Amazon's promise of drone deliveries within five years as unrealistic.
"I just don't see it," he said. "It struck me as something more to do with marketing."
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