Is Poor Safety the Price of Cheap Travel?

April 16, 2013
"WE make people fly" has become a somewhat-unfortunate marketing tagline for the airline which forced its passengers to swim last weekend.

[SINGAPORE] "WE make people fly" has become a somewhat-unfortunate marketing tagline for the airline which forced its passengers to swim last weekend.

The Lion Air accident which resulted in an almost-brand new B737-800 coming to grief in the waters off Bali did not kill anyone, but it has again raised questions about the safety of the region's numerous airline start-ups in general, and Indonesia's carriers in particular.

In fact, the spate of accidents involving the country's carriers were so alarming that the European Union blacklisted Indonesian airlines in 2006 over safety concerns sparked by alleged poor maintenance and regulatory oversight. With the exception of Garuda, Mandala and Indonesian AirAsia, all Indonesian carriers remain blacklisted.

In the case of this ill-fated Lion Air flight, the emerging thinking within aviation circles seems to be that maintenance is unlikely to have been a key cause; the aircraft was barely two months old. Not surprisingly, the focus has now turned on the pilot, Captain Mahlup Ghozali, 40, and his co-pilot Chirag Carla. Initial tests showed they were not flying under the influence of drugs (or, presumably, alcohol).

Add to that the fact that Capt Ghozali was no newbie in the cockpit, having reportedly clocked more than 10,000 hours of flying time. Yet he was unable to land his plane under what he claimed were rainy conditions with poor visibility. But here's the thing: Such intemperate conditions from heavy rain and thunderstorms are common in this part of the world. Ultimately, the truth will come out when the investigations are complete.

But on a broader level, this crash rekindles concerns over the impact of almost unrestrained and largely unregulated growth of aviation in this region, almost all of it involving budget carriers and single-aisle, point-to-point services.

The privately owned Lion Air, which calls itself a full-service carrier, is one of the fastest-growing airlines in the Asia-Pacific, where a new carrier is launched almost every other month.

Lion Air is also poised to launch the Malaysia-based full-service regional carrier Malindo Air, for which it obtained the requisite Air Operator's Certificate (AOC) last year.

And over the past year or more, the Kirana-family controlled airline has placed orders for some 400 planes worth some US$25 billion. Its rival, Air Asia, has placed orders for more than 340 planes.

Lion Air and Air Asia are among the Asia-Pacific's nearly 50 low-cost carriers (LCCs) which have enjoyed phenomenal growth in the last decade. Other players like Tiger and Cebu also have a significant number of planes coming into operation in the next five or six years.

The Sydney-based Centre for Asia-Pacific Aviation reckons that regional LCCs will operate 1,000 aircraft by 2015, which is about a third of the region's narrow body fleet; this should double in a decade.

The quest for growth and maintaining of market share by these carriers has "commoditised" air travel. As AirAsia puts it: Now everyone can fly.

With the huge capacity injections has come cut-throat competition and downward pressure on yields and profits. Something has to give, and the question is: What? With so many planes coming on-stream, there is already an emerging shortage of pilots and cabin crew. A scramble is on to recruit and train these professionals in short order.

The region also needs thousands of trained aircraft engineers and technicians to maintain the growing fleet.

The chase for returns forces airlines to ramp up utilisation rates and force pilots to work the maximum hours allowable. Shortcuts and cost cutting in aircraft maintenance regimes could follow. Miscalculations, fatigue and risk-taking could increase. One only needs to recall the incidents involving now-defunct Adam Air of Indonesia.

Who is looking after the well-being of the millions of passengers criss-crossing the skies of the region? Who regulates intra-regional air-safety protocol? What kind of standard operating procedures for pilots, aircraft and maintenance do airlines follow across a region larger than Europe'

There are no easy answers. Air travel across the region has become cheap.

Life shouldn't be.

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