Republic Airways Holdings drops on high volatility

Republic Airways Holdings (RJET.O), NASDAQ's 37th largest transportation company by market capitalisation, traded between an intraday low of US$3.82 and a high of US$4.13, suggesting a trading opportunity between peaks and troughs. The average daily volatility of 5.2% places the stock in the 2nd quartile in the market meaning it is moderately volatile. Today its volatility (highest price minus lowest price/lowest price) of 8.1% was 7.0 times the average daily volatility of 1.2%, up from 5.5% on Wednesday and 4.6% on Tuesday. A price fall on high volatility is a bearish signal. The stock price dipped 2.0c (or 0.5%) to close at US$3.90. Compared with the NASDAQ-100 index, which fell 6.3 points (or 0.3%) on the day, this was a relative price change of -0.2%.

PRICE DYNAMICS

% Discount to high: the last price is at a discount of 49.9% to the 12-month high of US$7.79 a year ago on 05 Jan, 2011.

Volume weighted price (VWP): the price is at a discount of 3.9% to the 1-month volume weighted average price of US$4.059, which may appeal as a value proposition.

Falls to Rises: In the last three months the number of falls outnumbered rises 34:27 or 1.26:1.

Beta: The Beta of this stock is 0.75. A Beta lower than 1 suggests this is a low risk, low return stock with volatility less than that of the market.

Standard Deviation (SD): SD is a statistical measure of deviation from the mean. The SD of 5.4% gives it a percentile rank of 90 meaning that 90% of stocks in the NASDAQ market are less volatile than this stock.

Trailing month: in the last 21 trading sessions there has been a net decline of 15.95%; the stock has retreated 20 times and the biggest one day decline was 8.9% on Nov 23.

AGGREGATE VOLUMES, PRICES AND TURNOVER PERIOD

[Volume Index or VI in brackets; 1 is average]

NASDAQ: RJET.O 429,454 [VI of 0.7]; volume 91.14% of aggregate. Price: US$3.90.

BATS: RJET.BATS 41,724 [VI of 0.6]; volume 8.86% of aggregate. Price: US$3.89.

Aggregate volume: there were 471,178 shares worth US$1.8 million traded. The aggregate volume was 0.7 times average trading of 686,138 shares.

OPEN INTEREST TREND AND INTERPRETATION

Same day trend: open interest dipped 0.1% from 2,344 to 2,341. Combined with the price decrease of 0.5% this suggests the market is strengthening.

Trailing one week trend: Open interest rose 0.7% from 2,325 a week ago while the stock decreased 1.0% from US$3.76 a week ago. Combined with the falling price this suggests the market is weak.

Trailing one month trend: open interest crashed 92.5% from 31,205 a month ago while the stock dropped 4.9% from US$4.10 a month ago. Combined with the falling price this also suggests the market is strengthening.

Open interest as % of issued capital: 234,100 shares, representing 0.5% of the issued capital.

[ranked 209 out of 386 stocks in descending order]

2011 Open interest: 349 contracts, representing 14.9% of total.

2012 Open interest: 1,992 contracts, representing 85.1% of total.

Put:call ratio: open interest contracts on exchange traded options included 440 put contracts and 1,901 call contracts.

The put:call ratio was 0.2, up 2.2% for the past week and up 255.4% in the past month.

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PRICE PERFORMANCE RANK IN INDEX AND SECTORS

The stock is in 1 index and 2 sectors:

The stock's fall was in keeping with the trend set by NASDAQ-100 index which was down 6.3 points or 0.3% to 2,226.7

The stock went against the trend set by the following sectors:

Transportation sector of 65 stocks traded today, which was up 18.4 points or 1.6% to 1,185.7,

The Total NASDAQ Market of 2424 stocks traded today, which was up 1.1 points or 0.1% to 1,767.

RELATIVE VALUATION INDICATORS [RVI] FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

The stock meets the following value criteria set by Benjamin Graham:

-"A stock price down to at least two-thirds of tangible book value per share"; the price is 0.3 times tangible book value per share of US$12.97.

Other Bullish Signals:

- The Price to Book of 0.4 lower than average of 3.6 for the Transportation sector and 3.4 for the Total NASDAQ Market. We estimate the shares are trading at a current year Price to Book of 0.4 and a forward year Price to Book of 0.3.

Bearish Signals:

- Total Liabilities/ EBITDA of 11.2 is more than or equal to 5, this compares unfavourably with the Joseph Piotroski benchmark of 5.

- The average annual compound return on the share price in the last 5 years was -25.5%, underperforming the average annual compound return on the NASDAQ-100 index of 4.5%

The stock has a score of merely 3 out of 9 set by Joseph Piotroski [pass mark >=5 ]:

Positive operating cashflow; Improvement in long-term debt to total assets from 0.57 to 0.53; Improvement in current ratio from 0.79% to 0.92%.

RELATIVE VALUATION INDICATORS [RVI] TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Bullish Signals:

- The price to 50-day EMAP ratio is 1.1, a bullish indicator. In the past 50 days this ratio has exceeded 1.1 22 times suggesting further upside. The 50-day EMAP has increased to US$3.606. An increase is another bullish indicator.

- The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator of 12-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) minus the 26-day EMA is positive suggesting a bullish signal. Both the 12-day EMA as well as the 26-day EMA are rising, another bullish signal.

Bearish Signals:

- The price decreased 1.0% in the last week and dropped 4.9% in the last month.

- In the NASDAQ market of 2,424 stocks traded today, the stock has a 6-month relative strength of 44 which means it has underperformed 56.0% of the market.

- In the last three months the stock has hit a new 52-week low once.

- The price to 200-day MAP ratio is 0.91, a bearish indicator. In the past 200 days this ratio has been under 0.91 181 times suggesting further downside. The 50-day MAP of US$3.385 is lower than the 200-day MAP of US$4.294, a bearish indicator. The 200-day MAP has decreased to US$4.294. A decrease is another bearish indicator.

SHAREHOLDER RETURNS

Trailing one week: the stock fell three times (60% of the time) and rose twice (40% of the time). The aggregate volume was 0.5 times average trading of 3,424,450 shares. The value of US$1,000 invested a week ago is US$987 [vs US$976 for the NASDAQ-100 index], for a capital loss of US$13(or loss of 1.3%).

Trailing one month: the stock fell twelve times (57% of the time), rose eight times (38% of the time) and was unchanged once (5% of the time). The aggregate volume was 0.6 times average trading of 15,067,580 shares. The value of US$1,000 invested a month ago is US$951 [vs US$944 for the NASDAQ-100 index], for a capital loss of US$49(or loss of 4.9%).

Trailing one year: the value of US$1,000 invested one year ago is US$540 [vs US$1,021 for the NASDAQ-100 index], for a capital loss of US$460. The total return to shareholders for 1 year is -46.0%.

Trailing five years: the value of US$1,000 invested five years ago is US$229, for a capital loss of US$771.

The present value of US$1000 invested at a previous date is shown below:

FINANCIALS

Quarterly Report; year-on-year comparisons with previous corresponding period:

In the quarter to September 30, 2011 total revenue was up 7.9% to US$767.9 million; net profit slumped 57.7% to US$9 million; EPS of 18.0c.

Annual Report for the year ended December 31, 2010 (year-on-year comparisons with previous corresponding period)-

Favourable Changes: total revenue up 58.0% to $US2.8b; total debt to net tangible assets down from 7.9 to 5.5; although the Total Liabilities to Operating Cash Flow ratio of 14.6 also compares unfavourably with the Joseph Piotroski benchmark of <4, it had improved by 37.5% from the previous year.; debt to equity down 21.5% to 4.2; total liabilities to total assets down 2.3% to 0.9; current ratio up 16.5% to 0.9; Net tangible assets per share up 27.5% to $US12.97; total revenue to total assets up 61.7% to 0.6.

Unfavourable Changes: interest cover down 55.7% to 0.9; EBIT Margin down 71.3% to 4.9%; total liabilities to EBITDA up 26.4% to 11.2: this compares unfavourably with the Joseph Piotroski benchmark of <5; Retained earnings to total assets down 1.2% to 8.9%; EBIT to total assets down 52.6% to 3.0%.

Major Common Size Ratios: fixed assets to total assets down from 76.8% to 73.0%; total current assets to total assets up from 13.3% to 16.7%; cash to total assets up from 3.5% to 6.7%; other non-current assets to total assets up from 3.0% to 3.7%; intangibles to total assets down from 3.7% to 3.3%; EBITDA to Sales down from 25.0% to 11.9%; EBITD to Sales down from 25.0% to 11.9%; depreciation to sales down from 9.2% to 7.3%; interest expenses to sales down from 8.2% to 5.4%; EBIT to Sales down from 15.8% to 4.6%.

MARKET SHARE

Republic Airways Holdings vs Transportation sector [Transportation sector Total in Brackets]

Revenue of US$2.8 billion[3.0% of aggregate sector revenue of US$92.4 billion; up from 2.3% in the previous year.]

EBIT of US$130.1 million [2.7% of aggregate sector EBIT of US$4.7 billion; down from 14.9% in the previous year.]

FUNDAMENTALS

ISSUED CAPITAL

Based on 48,293,008 issued equity shares the market capitalisation is US$188.3 million. It is NASDAQ's 8th largest Transportation company by total revenue.

ACTIVITIES

Republic Airways Holdings Inc. operates Chautauqua Airlines, Inc., (Chautauqua Airlines), Republic Airline Inc. (Republic Airline) and Shuttle America Corporation (Shuttle America). As of December 31, 2008, the Company offered scheduled passenger service on approximately 1,250 flights daily to 109 cities in 35 states, Canada, Mexico and Jamaica pursuant to code-share agreements with AMR Corp., the parent of American Airlines, Inc. (American), Continental Airlines, Inc. (Continental), Delta Air Lines, Inc. (Delta), Midwest Airlines, Inc. (Midwest), Mokulele Flight Service, Inc. (Mokulele), United Air Lines, Inc. (United), and US Airways, Inc. (US Airways). The Company provides its partners with regional jet service, operating as AmericanConnection, Continental Express, Delta Connection, Frontier Airlines, US Airways Express or United Express, including service out of their hubs and focus cities.

REPORTED SELLING

Reported Selling:

October 12: Republic Airways Holdings insider sells

Republic Airways Holdings (RJET.O) insider Arnell Lars Erik sold 1,583 shares worth approximately US$4,242 on October 10, 2011. The selling price was USD2.61.

June 24: Republic Airways Holdings insider sells

Republic Airways Holdings (RJET.O) insider Dooley Timothy P. sold 583 shares worth approximately US$3,696 on April 01, 2011. The last price was USD6.44.

June 24: Republic Airways Holdings insider sells

Republic Airways Holdings (RJET.O) insider Arnell Lars Erik sold 5,000 shares worth approximately US$22,300 on June 22, 2011. The last price was USD4.35.

June 24: Republic Airways Holdings insider sells

Republic Airways Holdings (RJET.O) insider Dooley Timothy P. sold 2,500 shares worth approximately US$11,150 on June 22, 2011. The last price was USD4.35.

June 24: Republic Airways Holdings insider sells

Republic Airways Holdings (RJET.O) insider Arnell Lars Erik sold 1,583 shares worth approximately US$10,036 on April 01, 2011. The last price was USD6.44.

BUSINESS NEWS ROUND UP

The last company announcement is:

December 05: Republic Airways Holdings: Frontier Airlines Launches Kansas City-Tampa Service

[News Story] DENVER--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Continuing the expansion of its low-fare, nonstop service from Kansas City, Frontier Airlines today said it will launch nonstop seasonal service between Kansas City (MCI) and Tampa (TPA). The twice-weekly service will operate Feb. 15 through April 14, 2012, on Tuesday or Wednesday and on Saturday.Introductory fares on the nonstop Kansas City-Tampa route begin at $99 each way.

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