Dallas Love Field, where Southwest Airlines is dominant, could see traffic double or even triple if the Wright Amendment were repealed, a study commissioned by Dallas/Fort Worth Airport says.
Officials with Dallas/Fort Worth Airport released a study Tuesday saying that a repeal of the Wright Amendment could shift hundreds of flights and millions of passengers to Dallas Love Field.
The study, prepared by Boston consultants Simat, Helliesen & Eichner, also concluded that D/FW could lose flights to many cities, including overseas, if the amendment is eliminated.
Under the study's worst-case scenario, a Wright repeal would cause D/FW to lose 204 daily flights and 21 million passengers, a 35 percent drop. Traffic at Love Field, meanwhile, would triple.
Even under a more moderate scenario, the study concludes that the airport could well lose 121 flights, with traffic at Love Field doubling.
The decline in traffic would force American Airlines to cut many destinations from D/FW, the report concluded.
"This is disturbing," said Dan Petty, president of the North Texas Commission. "It's clear that repeal of the Wright Amendment would not be good for the North Texas economy."
D/FW paid $100,000 for the study, which supported the airport's long-standing position that repealing the amendment would be bad for the airport and for the region.
"Our mission with this was to learn if our fears were based on fact or folly," said Kevin Cox, the airport's chief operating officer. "Our worst fears were confirmed."
In a statement, American Airlines praised the study, calling it "very thorough" and "even conservative in some respects."
Others questioned the study's conclusions and suggested that it was biased.
"D/FW paid for this, and they got what they paid for, which are the answers they expected," said Ed Stewart, a spokesman for Dallas-based Southwest Airlines. "But to us, these answers don't hold water and make absolutely no sense."
One analyst pointed out that the study didn't address the question of how repealing the amendment might affect airfares.
"A benefit for the community in this is whether fares go down," said Alan Sbarra, an airline industry analyst and consultant with Roach and Sbarra Consulting. "That's what many people are going to care about."
The study was the latest salvo in an ongoing battle over the amendment that has pitted D/FW Airport and Fort Worth-based American Airlines against Southwest. The law, approved by Congress in 1979, permitted flights from Love Field only to adjacent states. It was later amended to include Kansas, Alabama and Mississippi.
Southwest long remained neutral on the law, but it began lobbying late last year to get it overturned.
In North Texas, Southwest operates from Love Field but not D/FW. Southwest is dominant at Love, while American is the dominant player at D/FW.
Some analysts have said the Wright Amendment is worth several hundred million dollars annually to American.
The study's author, Christina Cassotis, said she tested various scenarios regarding both airports using airline traffic data and other information.
Some of her findings matched recent statements by American Airlines executives, who have said that they would move a substantial number of flights to Love Field if the amendment were lifted.
Her worst-case prediction assumes that the Love Field Master Plan, which the city of Dallas approved in 2001 and limits the airport's size to 32 gates, will be overturned if the Wright Amendment goes away.
That concerns Pat White, co-chairwoman of the Love Field Citizens Action Commission, which represents neighborhoods near the Dallas airport.
"The 32-gate limit would not hold if there's more demand for service there," she said.
Executives with American have said that they will challenge the master plan in court if the Wright Amendment is eliminated.
But Southwest officials insist that the master plan will remain in force, even if the amendment is repealed, and that they will abide by it.
A consultant hired by Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport says an expansion of nearby Love Field would lead to reduced flights and millions fewer passengers each year at DFW.
A new study commissioned by American Airlines concludes that Dallas/Fort Worth Airport could lose hundreds of flights to scores of destinations if the Wright Amendment is repealed.
Southwest Airlines would gain millions in profits from repeal of the Wright Amendment, an independent financial analyst has calculated, while rival American Airlines would take a hit.
A study commissioned by Southwest Airlines suggests that North Texas travelers could save nearly $700 million annually on airfares if the Wright Amendment is repealed.