A week away from what could be the first major airline strike in seven years, Northwest Airlines asserts it can operate without missing a beat if its unionized mechanics are off the job.
The company has worked for 18 months and spent tens of millions of dollars to recruit and train more than 1,000 replacement workers who would be tapped to keep its planes flying even if flight attendants opt to join mechanics on the picket line.
Yet Northwest is operating in unfamiliar air space -- a major airline hasn't successfully replaced a group of workers in more than 20 years. And its plans assume other workers -- such as pilots and baggage handlers -- will cross the mechanics' picket lines.
Its business-as-usual approach aside, the airline has noted internally that its plans are ambitious. A document dated June 28 outlining its plan to keep its flights on schedule notes "there is inherent risk in the plan due to its scope and complexity." In a quarterly financial report to regulators filed this week, Northwest notes a bankruptcy is more likely if a strike interrupts its operations. Such a disruption, "even for a short period of time, could have a severe detrimental impact on the company's financial condition," it told the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Talks are expected to resume Monday between Northwest and the Aircraft Mechanics Fraternal Association, which represents about 4,900 mechanics and cleaners.
Although mechanics have agreed to cut their pay, their proposal falls short of the$176 million in annual cuts Northwest says it needs from the group as part of its plan to cut overall annual labor costs by $1.1 billion. Northwest also wants to slash its mechanic jobs by half, which the union says is draconian.
On Thursday, Northwest executives spoke with confidence as they laid out their plan to weather a strike for local and national media.
"We don't anticipate any disruption in travel plans," said Tim Griffin, Northwest's executive vice president of marketing and distribution.
The airline plans to shift more mechanics' work to third-party vendors, while tapping about 1,200 replacement workers and about 300 managers. Most of the replacements will be working on line maintenance at hubs in Detroit and the Twin Cities, supervised by Northwest managers. Ground workers who are part of a different union -- the International Association of Machinists -- have been trained to perform some work done now by mechanics, such as push planes back from gates, airline executives said.
The airline followed the same hiring standards for replacements as it has for its permanent workers, executives said. Layoffs have swelled the numbers of experienced mechanics and others looking to land work, they say.
"As a basic principle, we will stick with our basic safety credo," said Andy Roberts, Northwest's executive vice president of operations. "We will never ever compromise safety." Northwest operates 1,600 daily flights, but the schedule will be reduced about 10 percent as its fall schedule kicks in Aug. 20, which would be the first full day of a strike.
Northwest said major work on its aircraft -- called heavy maintenance -- is mostly handled by outside companies, a widespread industry practice. Replacements will work on the daily repairs, troubleshooting problems at the gate and writing up orders for later repair.
Recruiting and training workers is one thing, deploying and coordinating them is another.
"Replacement workers are never going to be as efficient as the existing work force, at least in the short-term," said John Remington, an industrial relations professor at the University of Minnesota's Carlson School of Management.
Mechanics insist that the replacements won't be able to run a smooth operation, especially at first. Complications multiply should flight attendants vote to stay off the job. Unions representing pilots and ground workers haven't said publicly whether they will honor the picket lines.
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