With more than half of the nation's major airlines in bankruptcy, industry leaders and analysts have no clear consensus on what commercial aviation will look like in the future.
But most agree that big changes are coming, even after several years of often painful restructuring at the major hub carriers.
"The airlines have been in crisis in the past," Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., said during a hearing last week on the effects of Hurricane Katrina. "But I don't think I've seen anything approaching this."
Delta Air Lines and Northwest Airlines filed for Chapter 11 protection last week, joining United Airlines and US Airways in bankruptcy. Two smaller carriers, ATA Airlines and Hawaiian carrier Aloha, are also under court supervision.
Of the so-called legacy airlines -- the hub carriers that date back before World War II -- only Fort Worth-based American Airlines and Continental Airlines, headquartered in Houston, are operating outside bankruptcy.
Most industry observers agree that all of the legacy carriers face further cost-cutting, which could include more wage cuts, layoffs and the elimination of pension plans.
But few claim to predict what the future business model of a successful airline may look like.
Some advise the big airlines to mimic successful discount carriers Southwest Airlines and JetBlue Airways. That would involve slashing back on hubs, flying more direct city-to-city routes, and focusing on popular routes while reducing service to smaller cities.
Others argue that the legacy airlines simply can't -- and shouldn't -- try to impersonate Southwest, and should focus on their international service, giant hubs and appeal to business travelers. They point out that without its fuel hedges, which allow it to buy jet fuel at lower prices, the Dallas-based carrier would be losing money as well.
And some predict that mergers and liquidations will shake the industry until only a few successful airlines remain. That consolidation could even include the creation of giant global airlines, if federal laws are changed to allow foreign investment in U.S. carriers.
"There's no clear understanding right now of how things are going to play out," said Ron Kuhlmann, vice president of Unisys R2A Transportation Management Consultants, an aviation consulting firm.
In some respects, these should be good times for the airline industry.
The summer travel season was one of the best in years. On average, many airplanes flew more than 80 percent full as tourists flocked to airlines as they haven't since before 9-11.
And the legacy airlines have seen some relief, albeit small, from the intense competition that has pushed fares to the cheapest level in years. A series of small fare increases in the fall and summer has boosted revenues.
At American, for example, unit revenues during the second quarter jumped 7 percent compared with the previous year.
But the rising cost of jet fuel has overwhelmed the revenue gains and several years of cost-cutting. Fuel prices have risen 239 percent over the past four years, according to the Air Transport Association, costing the airlines billions.
"No business model at any airline can survive sustained jet-fuel prices at this level," said James May, president of the Air Transport Association, an industry trade group, as he testified at last week's Senate hearing.
"The future is not bright," he said.
Delta and Northwest cited fuel costs in their bankruptcy filings.
"Oil is once again robbing the industry of a return to profitability," Giovanni Bisignani, chief executive of the International Air Transport Association, said last week. "Cost reductions and efficiency gains have never been more critical."
The fuel prices, which few expect to decline in the near term, lead some analysts to conclude that the industry's salvation lies in the lean structure of Southwest, JetBlue and AirTran Airways.
United and Delta have made some moves in this direction. Both have founded low-fare subsidiaries, Delta's Song and United's Ted, that have borrowed heavily from the discounters' playbook. Both airlines claim their low-fare units are successful, although they refuse to break out detailed financial results.
It's a strategy that American executives have avoided. They argue that the airline's problems lie in its entire operation and can't be solved by creating a smaller airline to battle the discounters.
Airline consultant Mike Boyd of the Boyd Group in Evergreen, Colo., warns that the legacy carriers are making a mistake if they try to transform into Southwest. That airline focuses on popular routes between large cities and cannot make money flying to small cities.
"You can't operate a global airline like that," Boyd said.
Boyd predicts that the low-fare airlines will face significant troubles in coming years, as their fuel hedges expire and they increasingly begin to compete with one another rather than the legacy airlines.
"In a year or so, we're going to be talking about how Southwest and JetBlue are in so much trouble," he said.
That view suggests that the legacy airlines will be better off maintaining the core of their longtime business model, but with some changes to cut costs and boost revenues. It's a road that American has been on for several years, and it has made more progress than most of the large hub airlines.
Airlines will continue to expand international service, which is generally far more profitable than domestic flying. Service on less-profitable routes will be reduced and, in many cases, shifted to regional airlines that fly smaller aircraft.
And the legacy airlines will maintain or even upgrade their first-class cabins, admiral's clubs and other perks that entice well-heeled business travelers. These moves will maximize revenues and draw customers away from the discounters.
All of this must be done with reduced costs. And few can predict with certainty that the legacy airlines can cut deeply enough to return to profitability.
"The environment is so volatile right now," Kuhlmann said.
Seth Young, an assistant professor of business at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University in Daytona Beach, Fla., predicts that the discount and the legacy business models will survive, but in a somewhat modified form.
"You'll have the JetBlues of the world serving the high-demand domestic markets, with a lot of leisure travelers," he said.
Meanwhile, the legacy carriers will focus on being global airlines, concentrating on international routes and contracting with regional carriers to feed passengers from smaller cities to their gateway hubs.
"The problem for the legacy carriers right now is that they're trying to do both," he said.
Many believe that fewer airlines will be flying because of mergers and liquidations. That will reduce competition and enable the survivors to boost revenues by raising fares.
That shakeout has already begun. On Friday, US Airways received permission to emerge from bankruptcy and close a merger with America West Airlines, a Phoenix-based discount carrier.
Officials of the blended company hope that it will offer the full, global service of a legacy carrier with the lower costs and efficiency of a discount airline.
United Airlines also hopes to emerge from bankruptcy next year. On Friday, a federal judge approved plans to hold a final hearing on the airline's reorganization in January.
Some simply won't survive the shakeout, Young said.
"Some airlines are going to fail, others will be absorbed and a few will be able to make the transition," he said. "It's not going to be easy for any of them."
May of the Air Transport Association agreed. And he suggests that U.S. carriers could be merged with foreign airlines if federal laws prohibiting such combinations are changed.
"It's unrealistic to think there is not going to be additional consolidation," he said. "And if the law changes, that will include international consolidation."
That could conceivably include the creation of a mammoth global airline, if, for example, American Airlines and British Airways were to merge.
Darryl Jenkins, a longtime industry analyst who works as a consultant in Virginia, said he is certain of only one thing.
"I think this restructuring will last for a long, long time," he said. "I'd be very surprised if things stabilized in my lifetime."
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