What if Delta's Pilots Walk Out?

Pilot union leaders at Delta Air Lines have drawn their line in the sand: A strike could begin as soon as April 18 if a special panel rules that the airline can toss out the existing contract and impose new wage cuts.

Talks between union and management negotiators continue on a deal that would avert a strike at Atlanta's biggest carrier --- one that could deal a fatal blow to its Chapter 11 recovery effort.

But with the potential strike date little more than a week away, many fliers wonder whether a walkout will really occur and what it would mean.

Here are a few questions and answers to help you assess the situation:

How likely is a pilot strike?

The odds are against it --- right up until the moment it happens. The overwhelming majority of these disputes wind up being settled before a union makes good on strike threats.

Two other big airlines that went through recent Chapter 11 restructurings, United and US Airways, weathered perils-of-Pauline labor disputes without taking strikes. Northwest Airlines, like Delta now flying under Chapter 11, got a strike-averting pilot deal in early March, though it still must be ratified.

Delta itself has been through two sets of tense pilot negotiations in the past two years, one resolved in the fall of 2004 and another last fall.

The latter, however, only produced an interim agreement that set up the current dispute.

What can travelers do to protect themselves?

Pay with a credit card, so that if a strike occurs and your flight is canceled, you can at least get the charge canceled as well. Some travel experts say Delta would likely try to rebook passengers on other carriers or refund unused tickets, but there would be far more stranded travelers than available seats. Travelers booked with frequent flier miles would have lower priority.

To hedge your bets on an already-booked trip, you could double-book on another airline and use the credit from the Delta ticket later, minus rebooking fees.

As far as booking future travel on Delta, it's a judgment call. While history suggests a last-minute settlement is in the making, there's no guarantee. An airline spokesman said Thursday that travelers can "book with Delta with confidence."

What would trigger a walkout?

Air Line Pilots Association Chairman Lee Moak now has his union's authority to call a strike anytime after April 17. He has said he will do so if a three-man "neutral panel" called in by both sides decides Delta can scrap the union's current contract and impose the cutbacks it wants as part of its Chapter 11 recovery plan.

The panel is due to rule by April 15, although it has strongly urged the two sides to keep working toward a deal. After hearings last month, the panel said both sides will be guilty of an "abandonment of responsibility that will and should haunt all of you" if they fail to reach a consensual solution.

Can Delta block a strike?

Maybe.

Delta contends that under these circumstances a strike would be illegal; the union says it would have the right to strike rather than work without a contract. Delta could seek an injunction to block a walkout, with financial penalties against the union for noncompliance. Whether it could get a favorable ruling quickly enough to forestall major service disruptions remains to be seen.

The dispute is in a gray legal area because, so far, it has been outside the usual contract negotiation process overseen by the federal National Mediation Board. Normally an airline union can legally strike after negotiations follow a path proscribed by the NMB. In this case, the NMB hasn't been involved, though some legal experts argue it could still step in before a strike can occur.

ALPA argues that unions in other industries have been able to strike after bankruptcy courts rejected contracts.