Some analysts say summer gas prices could top $4 per gallon.
Sam Gilliland, the head of travel services giant Sabre Holdings, says he isn't worried. While more consumers might leave their cars at home, he says air travel is still a bargain.
Gilliland says Sabre, which owns travel Web site Travelocity, is shifting to meet the changing needs of the travel business.
Among other things, it signed a slew of deals with airlines in the first quarter that let these carriers offer their fares through Sabre's online and offline travel distribution systems. The airlines include Delta Airlines, United Airlines and Northwest Airlines.
Sabre posted a 20% rise in first-quarter revenue to $700 million. Per-share earnings fell 35% to 24 cents, a decline the company attributed to costs related to acquisitions and to seasonal factors.
Gilliland recently spoke with IBD about the travel business.
IBD: Will summer travel trends be affected by high gas prices?
Gilliland: We continue to believe that Americans are going to travel this summer. Many have already booked their trips. We don't think there'll be a dramatic impact. Maybe there'll be shifts from driving to flying.
IBD: Is flying still cheap, given oil prices and other factors?
Gilliland: Airline tickets are still a screaming good deal. They're still about 15% lower on average than they were before 9-11. It's our view that (oil prices) won't have a dramatic impact on demand.
IBD: Aren't more fuel surcharges on plane tickets possible?
Gilliland: Airlines could take their prices up some more. We've seen a 10% increase in airfares year over year. That means low-cost airfare and network airfare providers have been taking their prices up. But those prices are still lower than they were before 9-11. I think planes are going to fly really full this summer.
IBD: Travelocity rival Expedia last week released first-quarter results that greatly lagged expectations, in part blaming lower commissions paid by airlines on ticket sales, leading to a 26% one-day decline in its share price. Does this indicate problems for the entire online travel industry?
Gilliland: While I won't comment on our competitors, I would say that Travelocity's core businesses are performing nicely. In the first quarter, we saw strong top-line growth without increasing marketing spend. Our transaction revenue grew 21% in North America, faster than the market, and total global packaging revenue remained quite strong at 38% growth.
We continue to have access to great hotel content, with margins that are not deteriorating. And we see Travelocity on track this year to triple operating income.
So based on our experience so far, we believe there is solid growth ahead this year for the online travel space, domestically and abroad.
IBD: What other changes in consumer travel trends do you see?
Gilliland: We have groups of consumers now who are accustomed to buying travel online, and that bodes well for online travel agencies. I see continued robust growth in packaged travel sales where items like airfares and hotels are included.
IBD: Is competition intensifying in online travel?
Gilliland: We're getting smarter and so are our competitors. But I also see competition getting more disciplined. You don't have cutthroat pricing anymore, you have competitive pricing.
IBD: How has Sabre transformed itself over the past few years?
Gilliland: For one thing, revenue growth's taking off.
If you look way back at our history before the online travel business began, we were primarily a travel distribution business. We took what was available and put it on our shelves and distributed it through travel agents.
IBD: What impact did this have on Sabre's sales growth?
Gilliland: We had a few years of relatively flat revenue growth. Now (in 2006), we're seeing between 15%-20% growth this year in revenue, and we see (that holding) over the course of the next several years. We're also looking at EPS growth this year of about 15%.
Chairman and Chief Executive Michael S. "Sam" Gilliland said the sale wouldn't change Sabre's business strategy.
Eighty-five percent of financial executives surveyed in January 2005 feel their companies will spend more or the same on corporate travel in the coming year.
According to the U.S. Travel Association, leisure travel is expected to rise 2%; business travel, 2.5%; and international travel into the U.S., 3% this year.
Fares on most major airlines have been creeping up this year as the cost of jet fuel has risen. But Fort Worth-based American did make a change to its Internet pricing in April that makes fares appear...