"The big boys are taking the lion's share of the business, but you won't find a different story in any part of the federal government," he says.
Officials of Lockheed Martin, one of the 25 companies selected, say it makes sense that the giant defense contractor has been selected for numerous Homeland Security contracts.
The company has expertise in many areas and successfully completed contracts for various agencies before they were combined within one department after 9/11, says Senior Vice President Art Johnson. Many small companies "have tremendous capabilities," and Lockheed Martin often teams with them on large contracts, he says.
Global threat remains
Without another major terrorist attack like those of 9/11, Homeland Security Research, the industry tracker, expects the market for security goods and services to increase to $178 billion in 2015, or triple its current value.
But a major attack in the United States, Europe or Japan could increase the global market in 2015 to $730 billion, more than a twelvefold increase, the company says.
Most of the growth this decade will come from building what Homeland Security Research calls "a homeland defense infrastructure." Growth areas are likely to include technology for surveillance and for detection of nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction, Amit says.
That differs from the last five years, when the growth came mainly from airport security, information technology and combating bioterrorism with detection devices and stockpiling of vaccines.
The homeland security business is much bigger in the USA than in any country or region abroad, but that's changing. Rapid growth is expected in Europe, India and China. The USA will make up only 42% of the global market in 2015, Amit predicts.
Spending growth abroad, he said, will be driven by a variety of perceived terrorism threats, he says.
Western European countries have "a substantial population of Middle Eastern immigrants that can harbor terrorist cells," Amit says.
As economies of India and China grow rapidly, crime is rising and both are expected to join other Asian nations in an effort to combat crime and terrorism, he says.
Also, India has been embroiled in a long-running conflict with Pakistan over the region of Kashmir, he says.
The recent alleged plot to use liquid explosives to blow up U.S. airliners over the Atlantic will maintain the industry's steady growth, Amit says.
"It quiets the critics who say too much money is being spent on homeland security," he says. "The threat is not going away."
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