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Aug. 31--SANTA ANA PUEBLO, N.M. -- A prominent aviation expert says McCarran International Airport over the next five years will be the eighth-fastest growing airport among the top 150 airports in the country.
Mike Boyd, whose company Boyd Group International just concluded its 16th annual aviation forecast summit here today, said McCarran should see 8.8 percent growth in the number of boardings by 2016. The forecast percentage growth would outpace the national average of 6 percent growth.
Boyd is projecting the boarding of 20.5 million passengers at McCarran in 2011 and 22.3 million in 2016.
The fastest-growing airport in the five-year forecast is Dallas' Love Field, the home airport of Southwest Airlines.
Southwest is expected to have a significant boost in traffic at Love Field in 2014 when the Wright Amendment, which restricts nonstop flights from all but seven states on planes with more than 56 seats, expires. When the restrictions are lifted, Southwest is expected to add several nonstop routes to and from the Dallas airport, and Boyd is projecting a 15.1 percent increase in boardings.
Other fast-growing airports ahead of Las Vegas include Boston's Logan International (projected growth of 14.2 percent), New Orleans (12.8 percent), Charlotte, N.C. (11.3 percent), Dallas-Fort Worth International (10.8 percent), Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport (10.5 percent) and Charleston, S.C. (9.1 percent).
The rest of the top 10 include Seattle-Tacoma International and Durham, N.C., each with 8.6 percent growth projected.
Boyd said airline strategies are a key component to how airports grow. He noted US Airways' massive pullback of flights at McCarran in 2008-09 as an example of how an airline's financial strategy could affect an airport's growth.
"More than ever before, growth is being driven by the dynamic of the airplane and the dynamic of the airline," Boyd said.
Elements that are expected to be components of McCarran's growth over the next five years are strategies to attract international travel, including flights to and from Canada, Mexico and Latin America, the steady slow growth of Southwest and continued expansion by Las Vegas-based Allegiant Air.
Boyd said his projections were based on individual analysis of all 150 airports, airline service trends, economic forecasts and schedule and capacity shifts. He said some projections could be skewed by Allegiant, which he said doesn't operate like a traditional air carrier.
He also said he doesn't expect Southwest's entry into the Atlanta market to create a major market shift since the company acquired a low-cost carrier already operating there, AirTran.
In other presentations in the second day of the Boyd conference:
--Doug Parker, CEO of US Airways, offered a report card on the status of the airline industry and said he was bullish on its future. He said industry problems on fragmentation, labor relations and management focus have improved, but government policy issues are still problematic for airlines.
He said labor relations have improved because union leaders have bought into the idea that for employees to make more money, companies must achieve profitability. Management's move to achieve profitability instead of focusing on market share is succeeding, he said. He used US Airways' reduction in operations in Pittsburgh and Las Vegas as examples of how the company is implementing its financial strategy.
--Roger Dow, CEO of the U.S. Travel Association, presented a video from a Sao Paulo, Brazil, morning show that illustrated the anger and frustration potential Brazilian visitors to the United States have with waits of as long as four months for a three-minute interview for a U.S. travel visa.
--Delta Air Lines made a case for the implementation of a national airline policy. Delta's Holden Shannon, senior vice president of corporate strategy, said such a policy could address tax issues, curb speculation in the fuel derivatives markets, ensure the successful implementation of next-generation navigation technology, ramp up a global entry program for foreign travelers and level the playing field with foreign air carriers on a number of issues.
--A panel of pilot union leaders said the industry needs to be on alert for a potential problem in future years -- a shortage of well-trained airline pilots. Dave Bates, president of the Allied Pilot Association, and Carl Kuwitzky, president of the of the Coalition of Airline Pilots Association, said forced retirements and a shallower pool of experienced pilots could become an industry problem if the industry continues to grow.
