Of course the facts are not all in and the accident investigation will take many months, but as a long-time accident investigator the video certainly hints of an aircraft stall that could have been caused by a sudden shift in the cargo load.
In this case, we know from media reports that the cargo included heavy vehicles that would make a shift in load particularly significant. A stall at such a low altitude on takeoff is almost impossible for any flight crew to recover from. And we saw the tragic consequences with all seven people on board killed.
A sudden shift in cargo can mean several things. Either the cargo was improperly loaded, improperly secured, the restraints broke or any combination of the above.
As with most jobs in aviation, the load master serves a critical function. It is up to him or her to ensure that cargo is properly loaded accounting for both weight and center of gravity. With heavy vehicles, the problem can become the empty space remaining in the cargo area as the aircraft reaches its gross weight capacity.
In the industry, as you know, we refer to this as gross out before you bulk out. This means that if a restraint is not properly secured or breaks, the cargo has room to shift with potentially devastating consequences.
We don’t need to wait to determine the probable cause of this accident to review our own loading procedures and ensure that a load shift could not happen on our shift.
