'Slowing Down Is a Mistake'...

... was the overriding message from Administrator Randy Babbitt at the FAA’s annual Forecast Conference this week. He’s right, of course. At a time when the news is generally negative on aviation activity – airlines and general aviation – this is no time to stop investing in future infrastructure. In his prepared speech, Babbitt focused primarily on infrastructure investment for a new air traffic control system – NextGen. He comments, “I believe that this aviation forecast is a major point in a very strong business case for NextGen. If you’re thinking that because the numbers are down, there’s no need for NextGen or airport improvements, I would counter that it is unwise to make long-term decisions with short-term information. Aviation teaches us again and again the importance of getting ahead of the curve, and it will punish you if you don’t. It’s just flat-out wrong to contend that sluggish economic growth, high unemployment, or even higher oil prices in the near term are an occasion to ease up on our plans for modernization.” ACI-NA’s Greg Principato likes to point out that NextGen begins and ends at the airport, and U.S. airports are a critical component in the movement of aircraft. Infrastructure for ATC is critical to the future air transportation system, yes, but so too is infrastructure investment at the facilities on the ground. While for many this is a given – even for some members of Congress – it would be helpful if the FAA Administrator gave it more prominence in such a national forum. Five years ago when the economy and aviation were robust, FAA was projecting that the U.S. airline industry would transport one billion passengers annually by 2015. That plateau has been moved to 2023. The U.S. airline industry moved some 704 million passengers in 2009. In sum, FAA’s 20-year forecast for FY2010-2030 predicts domestic passenger enplanements will increase by 0.5 percent in 2010, followed by average growth of 2.5 percent per year during the forecast period. Total operations at airports are forecast to decrease 2.7 percent to 51.5 million in 2010, and then grow at an average annual rate of 1.5 percent reaching 69.6 million in 2030. At the nation's 35 busiest airports, operations are expected to increase 60 percent from 2010 to 2030, says FAA. Comments Babbitt, “This forecast makes a very strong business case for NextGen. Without NextGen, we won’t be able to handle the increased demand for service that this forecast anticipates.” FAA does a good job each year of providing a barometer of where the industry is today and where it’s headed. The fact that many in Congress have come to the realization that ongoing NextGen investment is critical is encouraging. Now if we can just get the legislators to recognize that long-term system reauthorization is just as critical. But then, the latest word is that the legislation is now being held up because of the dispute over unionizing FedEx workers. Another day, another excuse. Thanks for reading. jfi