Meanwhile, in Park City, UT ...

Oct. 11, 2006
… the Boyd Group of Englewood, CO was hosting its 11th annual Aviation Forecast Conference. Broad brush, one message is that 50-seat regional jets are on their way out -- not unlike the quick departure of turboprop commuters in the early 1990s … which, of course, were replaced by the 50-seat RJs.  Mike Boyd, centerpiece of this event, likes to take a brash approach to airline forecasting, which is what this meeting is about. Yet, he also likes to take a very studied approach. Track the records. His team’s forecasts are a bit more brazen, a bit more in your face, and often accurate. He gets his face on CNN a lot.  He saw RJs coming; he saw (sees) RJs going – at least the smaller ones. Among the high-powered airline and OEM execs presenting, not one argued the point. (Of course, at 8,200 feet where the meeting was held, a case can be made for a lack of oxygen.)  Therein lies the rub, at least for smaller communities. According to Boyd and others, the expectation is that the 50-seaters will be replaced by 70-seaters and larger as carriers ‘right size’ markets and airplane economics. Sounds good from an airline financial point of view. But for some communities, that 20 seats can make a difference in how a carrier views a market. Boyd asks, What is the strength of your feed into a hub? A cornerstone to his argument: He sees the hub-and-spoke carriers leading the charge in 2007 and beyond.  Thanks for reading. jfi     Â