Eclipsing Reality?
I am going to stick my neck out, buck the trend, and risk embarrassment most dire. I hereby state it, out loud and in public: I do not for one second believe the Eclipse jet is ever going to be produced to meet stated specs and price. Admittedly, this comes from the same fellow who predicted the failure of the Lear, the Citation, and the Caravan, but there is a difference.
June 2001
In those cases, I didn’t doubt that
they could build the product. I doubted they could sell it. In the case
of the Eclipse, it is the other way around; if they can build it they
can sell it like mad, but I don’t thing they can build it.
I have just studied info on the net that
insinuates, if it doesn’t outright state, that this airplane is a
done deal, but it ain’t. No airplane really exists until it is certified,
produced, and delivered to customers who are happy with it.
Aircraft tend to gain weight and price and
lose speed somewhere between concept and the finished product as delivered
to the customer. This has been particularly true of "breakthrough"
aircraft.
Am I the only one who remembers standing
outside at NBAA in Dallas way back in the ’80s, watching Burt Rutan’s
scale model of the Beech Starship fly over? Remember all the hoopla on
that one? There were some fine aircraft on display at NBAA that year,
but the non-existent, yet-to-be-built Starship stole the show with one
flyby and the big announcement. You couldn’t talk to people about
real airplanes; they were too excited about the Starship.
How about the LearFan? Remember that? How
about Jim Bede’s promises of aircraft that seemed to defy the laws
of physics, all at a price the little people could afford?
Remember the Wing Derringer, the Windecker
Eagle, and the Burns? You don’t remember the Burns? Hell, I saw the
prototype myself, and came away feeling sorry for Cessna, Beech, and Piper
because the Burns was obviously going to put them out of business.
Does anybody remember Continental’s
Tiara engine? Or the Piper Brave that used that engine?
But Ralph, you might well say, some of these
products failed simply because they lacked the financing to get to market.
The Eclipse doesn’t have that problem. No, and neither did the Beech
Starship. They threw enough money at that thing to buy OPEC.
Others point out to me the truly substantial
people behind the Eclipse, and it is without a doubt a most impressive
group. In fact, the people behind it — Harold Poling, Vern Raburn,
Dr. Sam Williams, Kent Kresa, Alfred Mann, Chris Finnoff, and Jack Harrington,
to name a few — are captains of industry and masters of aviation
technology. On the other hand, Bill Lear was solidly behind the LearFan,
and he had right impressive credentials himself.
This is another of those times that I honestly
and sincerely hope to be proven wrong. I would love to see the Eclipse
meet specs and hold the price, but I just don’t believe it’s
possible. et. The Eclipse doesn’t have that problem. No, and neither
did the Beech Starship. They threw enough money at that thing to buy OPEC.
Others point out to me the truly substantial
people behind the Eclipse, and it is without a doubt a most impressive
group. In fact, the people behind it — Harold Poling, Vern Raburn,
Dr. Sam Williams, Kent Kresa, Alfred Mann, Chris Finnoff, and Jack Harrington,
to name a few — are captains of industry and masters of aviation
technology. On the other hand, Bill Lear was solidly behind the LearFan,
and he had right impressive credentials himself.
This is another of those times that I honestly
and sincerely hope to be proven wrong. I would love to see the Eclipse
meet specs and hold the price, but I just don’t believe it’s
possible.
