Don’t look now, but very light jets are no longer the wave of the future, they are here today. So, what impact will VLJs have on the aviation industry? Will they, as some think, change the aviation world, enabling all of us to dwell in the house of the jet forever? Or will they “be a small blip in the marketplace,” as others think? That reminds me of a story...
In the 1980s a study said that there was no proof that computers had increased productivity. I was shocked. Had we been chasing rainbows? Computers were supposed to change the world. Was it not to be? Had we been led astray?
Then, in a business magazine, I read the other side of the argument. True, there was no evidence that computers had significantly increased production, but it was too early to tell. Sounded like a crock to me. Computers had been in business use for years. What’d they mean, too early to tell?
Well, the magazine pointed out that early electric motors didn’t rise to their full potential either, until the world figured out how to best utilize them.
In the beginning, water wheels powered factories. The huge wheel turned a long shaft that ran the length of the factory, above the heads of the workforce. Each tool was hooked by belt to that shaft. In other words, the entire factory was located, designed, and built to effectively utilize water power.
When the electric motor came along, the factory water wheel was replaced with a huge electric motor that turned the same shaft. Nothing changed except the power source. Eventually, however, factories were redesigned to take advantage of the fact that electric motors — and thus factories — could be placed most anywhere to do most any job. Productivity soared like hormones in a teenager.
Look around. You will not believe how many electric motors you use. Watches, electric razors, refrigerators, furnaces, bathroom exhaust fans — you have dozens. Just as computers did later, electric motors became both smaller and larger and they were everywhere, doing everything. We started using them to do jobs that could not be done without computers. Productivity soared again. Will it be thus with VLJs? Probably to some extent.
Manufacturers originally thought VLJs would be used primarily for charter. They have found an unanticipated enthusiasm (and deposits) in the owner-flown segment of the market. They are adapting.
How else will our industry adapt to the VLJ? I don’t know. But then I never foresaw the monitor screen on the computer — did you? Yet today some argue that the screen was a major step in making the computer usable by the masses.
I suggest that we will change for the VLJ, the LSA, the supersonic business jet, the Airbus A-380, and other new products out there. Our world will never be the same again. As the southern saying goes, “Jes’ you set back and watch, chile.”
