The recovery across most U.S. transportation subsectors is fragile and activity remains generally materially depressed compared with pre-pandemic levels, S&P Global Ratings said today in a report titled "Updated Activity Estimates For U.S. Transportation Infrastructure Show Public Transit And Airport Operators Still Face A Long Recovery."
Our current baseline activity estimates for 2021 compared with pre COVID-19 levels show annualized declines of approximately 50 percent for public transit, and 40 percent for airports; and public transit ridership recovering to approximately 15 percent below pre-COVID-19 levels by the end of 2023, and enplanements returning to or near pre-pandemic levels in 2024 for most airports.
"The public transit and airport sectors face the longest recovery relative to other U.S. transportation subsectors," said S&P Global Ratings credit analyst Joe Pezzimenti.
The key variables influencing our view for 2021 and beyond are when herd immunity to COVID-19 is achieved and the reaction of governments and the traveling public to an evolving health and safety landscape.
